Tag: climate change

You Ought to Have a Look: Fighting DoE Efficiency Standards, Fracking to Go Global, and a ‘Hairy Panic’

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic. Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

Let’s begin this installment of You Ought to Have a Look with a peek at the heroic attempt by Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) to try to reel in the fanatical actions by the Department of Energy (DoE) to regulate the energy usage (operation) of virtually all the appliances in your home. The DoE effort is being undertaken as part of President Obama’s broader actions to mitigate climate change as directed under his Climate Action Plan. It is an extremely intrusive action and one that interferes with the operation of the free market.

We have been pushing back (through the submission of critiques during the public comment period of each new proposed regulation), but the sheer number and repetition of newly proposed regulations spilling forth from the DoE overwhelms our determination and wherewithal.

Rep. Burgess’s newly introduced legislation seeks to help lighten our suffering.

Bill H.R. 4504, the “Energy Efficiency Free Market Act of 2016” would “strike all government-mandated energy efficiency standards currently required on a variety of consumer products found in millions of American homes.”

Burgess reasons:

“The federal government must trust the American people to make the right decisions when it comes to the products they buy. When the government sets the efficiency standard for a product, that often becomes the ceiling. I have long been a firm believer in energy efficiency; however, when the market drives the standard, there’s no limit to how fast and how aggressive manufacturers will be when consumers demand more efficient and better made products.”

“Government standards have proven to be unworkable. The Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution was meant as a limitation on federal power. It was never intended to allow the federal government to micromanage everyday consumer products that do not pose a risk to human health or safety.”

Current Wisdom: Swatting Away the Zika/Climate Change Connection

The Current Wisdom is a series of occasional articles in which Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, from Cato’s Center for the Study of Science, review interesting items on global warming in the scientific literature or of a more technical nature. These items may not have received the media attention that they deserved or have been misinterpreted in the popular press.

We hardly need a high tech fly-swatter (although they are fun and effective) to kill this nuisance—it’s so languorous that one can just put their thumb over it and squish.

Jeb Bush’s candidacy? No, rather the purported connection between human-caused global warming and the highly-publicized spread of the Zika virus.

According to a recent headline in The Guardian (big surprise) “Climate change may have helped spread Zika virus, according to WHO scientists.”

Here are a few salient passages from The Guardian article:

“Zika is the kind of thing we’ve been ranting about for 20 years,” said Daniel Brooks, a biologist at University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “We should’ve anticipated it. Whenever the planet has faced a major climate change event, man-made or not, species have moved around and their pathogens have come into contact with species with no resistance.”

And,

“We know that warmer and wetter conditions facilitate the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases so it’s plausible that climate conditions have added the spread of Zika,” said Dr. Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, a lead scientist on climate change at WHO.

Is it really “plausible?”

Hardly.

The Zika virus is transmitted by two species of mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, that are now widespread in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the globe (including the Southeastern U.S.), although they haven’t always been.

Spin Cycle: Green Tax Credits Supplant Clean Power Plan to Meet Our Paris Commitment

The Spin Cycle is a reoccurring feature based upon just how much the latest weather or climate story, policy pronouncement, or simply poo-bah blather spins the truth. Statements are given a rating between 1-5 spin cycles, with less cycles meaning less spin. For a more in-depth description, visit the inaugural edition.

The Obama Administration is involved in an all-out effort to soften the severity of blow that the U.S Supreme Court dealt the EPA’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) last week.*

In the day following the Court’s ruling, White House Deputy Press Secretary Eric Schultz referred to the Supreme Court’s stay as a “temporary procedural determination” and then added that “[i]t is our estimation that the inclusion of [the extensions of the renewable energy tax credits] is going to have more impact over the short term [on greenhouse gas emissions]than the Clean Power Plan.”

We covered Schultz’s first statement in our Spin Cycle from last week, giving it our top award of five Spinnies.

Here we examine the second part of his statement, that the extension of the investment tax credit (ITC) and the production tax credit (PTC) on solar and wind power, approved by Congress last December “is going to have more impact over the short term than the Clean Power Plan.”

On its face, we must admit this is true. Primarily because, under the CPP, the states aren’t required to begin cutting power plant emissions until 2022—far outside what we would consider “over the short term.” So, by the letter of the (now stayed) law, the CPP wouldn’t have to result in any greenhouse gas reductions prior to 2022. Schultz statement lacks the proper context. Walking (instead of driving) to lunch one time next week would also produce “more impact over the short term [on greenhouse gas emissions]than the Clean Power Plan” (stayed or not).

A Two-Millennia Relationship Between Climate and Economic Data

Introducing their intriguing work, Wei et al. (2015) write that “investigating climate-society relationships has long been a hot topic,” noting that “many studies have demonstrated the important roles of climate change in facilitating the rise or fall of ancient communities.” However, they report that “intense arguments regarding the economic effects of global warming” remain to be clarified in such investigations.

Against this backdrop, Wei et al. set out to investigate the long-term relationship between the climate and economy of China. More specifically, they derived a 2,130-year long record of the Chinese economy based on 1,091 records extracted from 25 books on Chinese history and economic history, spanning the period 220 BC to 1910 AD. This new proxy was then statistically analyzed in conjunction with historical proxies of Chinese temperature and precipitation previously compiled by Ge et al. (2013) and Zheng et al. (2006), respectively. And what did that analysis reveal?

The three Chinese researchers found that warm and wet climate periods coincided with more prosperous and robust economic phases (above-average mean economic level, higher ratio of economic prosperity, and less intense variations), whereas opposite economic conditions ensued during cold and dry periods (where the possibility of economic crisis was “greatly increased”) (see Figure 1 below). They also report that temperature was “more influential than precipitation in explaining the long-term economic fluctuations, whereas precipitation displayed more significant effects on the short-term macro-economic cycle.”

In concluding their paper Wei et al. write that, “from a deep time perspective, our study may provide new insight into the current intense arguments regarding the economic effects of global warming.” Indeed it does; and that insight reveals a warmer (and wetter) climate favors economic prosperity. Given this data-derived relationship, why are the leaders of so many nations hell-bent on halting any future rise in global temperature, especially when two millennia of climate and economic data suggest such a rise would benefit the economy? As the late Casey Stengel would have said, “doesn’t anybody know how to play this game?”

Decline in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Overestimated by More Than a Third

Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

First China. Now the U.S.

It was big news last November when it was revealed that China had been under-reporting its coal consumption by nearly 20 percent. The big implication was that China’s greenhouse gas emissions were also much larger than being reported, complicating the (then) upcoming U.N. climate negotiations in Paris.

Now comes evidence that the U.S. has been underreporting its methane emissions—a potent greenhouse gas—by some 50 percent or more.  And what’s worse, is that over the past decade or so, instead of methane emissions having declined by about 10 percent as reported by the EPA, they have in fact grown by more than a whopping 30 percent. Not only would this information also have (had it been available) complicated the U.N. Paris talks, but it would have taken a lot of the shine off the U.S. emissions reduction efforts that President Obama was touting at the conference last December.

The new evidence is presented in a just-published paper in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters by a team led by Harvard PhD candidate Alexander Turner. Turner and colleagues examined several measures of methane emissions occurring in the U.S. (including in situ measurements and remote satellite observations) and concluded that EPA estimates were way off. They wrote:

National inventory estimates from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicate no significant trend in US anthropogenic methane emissions from 2002 to present. Here we use satellite retrievals and surface observations of atmospheric methane to suggest that US methane emissions have increased by more than 30% over the 2002-2014 period… This large increase in US methane emissions could account for 30-60% of the global growth of atmospheric methane seen in the past decade.

The implications are huge—at least when it comes to our advertised role as a supposed leader in climate change mitigation efforts.

Coercion and Boondoggles in the Name of Green Transportation

For most of Obama’s years as president, he has opposed raising the gas tax. Now, in his last, lame-duck year, he is proposing a $10 per barrel tax on oil. Since a 42-gallon barrel of oil produces about 45 gallons of gasoline, Diesel, jet fuel, and other products, this is roughly equal to a 22 cent per gallon gas tax, well above the current 18.4 cent tax.

The distinction between Obama’s oil tax and a gas tax is that the oil tax wouldn’t go into the Highway Trust Fund, where up to 80 percent goes for roads and 20 percent goes for transit. Instead, he proposes to spend $20 billion per year on alternatives to autos, including urban transit, high-speed rail, and mag-lev. Another $10 billion per year would be given to the states for programs that would supposedly reduce carbon emissions such as “better land-use planning, clean fuel infrastructure, and public transportation.” Finally, $3 billion would go for self-driving vehicle infrastructure that is both unnecessary and intrusive.

Obama proposes that the oil tax be phased in over five years, so that $33 billion is the average of the first five years; when fully phased in, the tax would bring in nearly $60 billion a year. This would be a huge slush fund for all kinds of social engineering programs.

The Republicans who run Congress plan to ignore Obama’s plan. The president’s “proposals are not serious, and this is another one which is dead on arrival,” says Senate Environment & Public Works Committee Chair James Inhofe (R-OK). Still, it’s worth looking at the plan as a preview of what might be proposed by the next president if that president happens to be a Democrat.

You Ought to Have a Look: Dr. John Christy’s House Testimony

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

If you read only one thing this week that falls within the realm of human-caused climate change, we strongly suggest this one—Dr. John Christy’s written testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space & Technology.

In it, he produces clear, strong evidence that the climate models are producing too much warming from greenhouse gas emissions and that there exists a concerted effort to try to downplay this fact to policymakers and the general public.

Christy’s Feb. 2nd testimony is an expansion of his earlier testimony Dec. 8th before the Senate’s Commerce, Science & Transportation’s Subcommittee on Space, Science and Competitiveness.

The central element of his December testimony was that climate models are failing miserably at simulating the actual temperature rise in the earth’s lower atmosphere. The models produce about 2.5 times as much warming from human greenhouse gas emissions than has actually been observed by satellites and weather-balloons.