Archives: 07/2016

We Don’t Need More Border Patrol

Trump’s call for a wall along the border reflects a common desire to control that supposedly lawless frontier.  As far as unauthorized immigration goes, the border is coming under increasing control.  337,117 total unauthorized immigrants were apprehended by Border Patrol in 2015, the lowest number since 1971 (Chart 1).  That number will likely rise this year but will still remain low.  

Chart 1

Border Patrol Apprehensions

 

Source: Customs and Border Protection.

Like the rest of government, Border Patrol has grown considerably over the decades despite the fall in apprehensions.  In 2015 there were just over 20,000 Border Patrol agents, double the number in 2002 and 6.3 times as many as were employed in 1986 (Chart 2). 

Chart 2

Border Patrol Officers

 

Source: Customs and Border Protection.

The increase in the size of Border Patrol has likely decreased unauthorized immigration, although the precise amount is up for debate (read this excellent report for more information).  On the opposite side, there is consistent evidence that border security does not affect the number of illegal entries but can dissuade migrants from leaving once they make it in.  Although the effect of Border Patrol and security on illegal entries is not entirely clear, it is obvious that the average Border Patrol officer is apprehending fewer unauthorized immigrants than at any time in decades with the exception of 2011 (Chart 3).

Chart 3

Apprehensions Per Border Patrol Agent

Source: Customs and Border Protection.

There is already too much corruption in Customs and Border Protection, exacerbated by rapid expansions in the size of their force.  New hiring binges will likely increase the struggles with corruption still more.  Problems with agency corruption and a low period in unlawful immigration are superb arguments against expanding and perhaps to even shrink the Border Patrol back to a reasonable size.

We’ve Been over the Huge Price of “Free” College before

Hillary Clinton will be introducing a plan today that would enable students from families eventually making up to $125,000 not to have to pay tuition at in-state colleges or universities. This is a jump in college subsidization from her previously announced plan, which focused on debt-free tuition, and more in line with what Bernie Sanders has proposed. Presumably, it is going to be paid for by the federal government offering states more money for higher education in exchange for states saying they’ll increase their own spending, to a point of making tuition largely free.

We’ve been over how costly “free” college really is–massive overconsumption, credential inflation, big opportunity costs for taxpayers, etc.–which you can read about here and here. I won’t rehash it all now. But the political calculus hasn’t changed: People like getting things for free, especially when the ultimate costs are hidden. And the more people who think they’ll benefit–the estimate is 8 out of 10 for Ms. Clinton’s new proposal–the better.

Should Teachers Have to Pay for Gushing over Clinton? (Or Trump? Or Gary Johnson? Or…)?

At just about the same time FBI Director James Comey was discussing how “extremely careless” Hillary Clinton was with classified information during her time as Secretary of State, the president of the National Education Association, the nation’s largest teachers union, was tweeting this:

And this:

And doing this:

All of this, by the way, took place at the NEA’s national convention.

Now, is there anything wrong with a union endorsing and campaigning for a presidential candidate? Heck no! But there is a huge problem when teachers, as a condition of working at government schools, are required to furnish funds for those unions.

I know the response: The “agency fees” teachers in many states are compelled to supply only cover collective bargaining, which is not political. Of course, such bargaining is absolutely political—negotiating with government entities is inherently political—and somtimes coming in at 65 percent or more of full dues, a lot of agency fee money is almost certainly going to more than just collective bargaining and administrative stuff. And money is fungible. Dollars that free payers supply for collective bargaining ultimately frees up other bucks for, I don’t know, maybe straight-out politicking!

Sadly, as you probably know, the U.S. Supreme Court tied up on this 4-4 earlier this year, maintaining a lower court ruling that agency fees are not a violation of constitutional speech and association rights. But just because the Supreme Court stumbled doesn’t mean the political branches of government can’t act to end forced union funding. And from I saw on Twitter yesterday, justice requires that compelled support of unions end.

Why Are Interest Rates So Low?

Since the financial crisis of 2007-09, and especially in recent months, Europe and the United States have seen zero and even slightly negative short-term nominal interest rates, and sub-zero risk-free real interest rates.  In June I participated in a conference on “Zero Interest Rate Policy and Economic Order” at the University of Leipzig, organized by Gunther Schnabl (U Leipzig), Ansgar Belke (U Duisburg-Essen), and Thomas Mayer(Fossback von Storch Research Institute).  The topic faced participants with the need to make a key judgment call: Are ultralow rates the new normal, i.e. are they long-run equilibrium rates determined by market fundamentals, or are they so low because of ultra-easy monetary policies and other policies?  In Wicksell’s terminology, is the real “natural rate” currently below zero, or are central banks holding market rates below the current natural rate? We cannot directly observe the natural rate, but we can look for indirect indicators.

The Constitution Protects Against NIMBYism

It should surprise no one that the government isn’t particularly good at respecting property rights. Still, the Constitution requires that property owners be provided with “due process of law” against arbitrary and unjustified deprivation of their right to put their property to beneficial use. According to several federal appellate courts, however, landowners lack such protections unless they show that they have a statutory “entitlement” to use their land.

This is circular Humpty Dumpty logic. Indeed, that approach impermissibly presumes the legitimacy of restrictions, without considering whether they are lawfully applied.

Most recently, the New York-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit employed the “entitlement” theory to deprive a small developer of its right to upgrade run-down apartment buildings. The NYC Landmarks Commission deprived Stahl York Avenue Company of its property rights by designating these nondescript buildings as landmarks—this despite a previous ruling that these exact buildings lacked any architectural or cultural merit worth preserving.

The Social Security Administration Shouldn’t Be Deciding Who’s Too “Mentally Defective” to Own a Gun

Unable to legislate new restrictions on what kind of arms can be sold, the government has embarked on a long-term effort of adding an untold number of Americans to “no buy” lists—based on the unfounded conjecture that they pose a “danger” to others—and deprive them of a fundamental constitutional right. The Gun Control Act of 1968 and NICS Improvement Amendments Act of 2007 requires that agencies with pertinent records on who is or is not “a mental defective” disclose those records to the attorney general so those people can be excluded from purchasing arms through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).

The Social Security Administration (SSA) has proposed a new regulation that would create a process for transferring the records of those who seek a “representative payee” (legal proxy) under Social Security disability benefits programs to NICS, so that they may be considered a “mental defective” and thus lose their Second Amendment rights. The proposed SSA rule is arbitrary—there’s no evidence that someone who needs help with SSA paperwork can’t be trusted with a gun—and inconsistent with the regulatory and statutory scheme, not to mention blatantly unconstitutional.

Accordingly, for the first time ever, Cato’s Center for Constitutional Studies, with the help of law professors Josh Blackman and Gregory Wallace, has filed a public comment objecting to the rule on 10 different grounds. No one disputes that the government has an interest in keeping guns out of the hands of those who could harm themselves or others, but depriving a constitutional right requires due process of law. Under existing law, the root requirement of the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause is that an individual receive a hearing before she is deprived of a constitutional right by a federal agency, one where the government must justify its restriction.

Tracing the Islamic State’s “Allure”

In a prominent article about Islamic State in the Washington Post over the weekend, Carol Morell and Jody Warrick suggest that, by massacring people in various locales, the group was growing in appeal—or “allure” in the words of the headline writer. How this remarkable process comes about is not explained, nor is evidence given to back it up. It is said to be a conclusion reached by “experts,” but only one of these is quoted in the article, and none of the quotes from him seems to fit, much less support, the article’s conclusion.

There is certainly evidence, much of it noted in other articles in the Post, to suggest that the appeal (or allure) of the vicious group actually is, like the scope of the territory it holds in Syria and Iraq, in severe decline. By 2016, the flow of foreign fighters going to join the group may have dropped by 90 percent over the previous year even as opposition to the group among Arab teens and young adults rose from 60 percent to 80 percent. Any allure the group may have in Iraq certainly fails to register on a poll conducted there in January 2016 in which 99 percent of Shiites and 95 percent of Sunnis express opposition to it. And, according to the FBI, the trend for Americans seeking to join Islamic State is decidedly downward.

Indeed, overall, the Islamic State has followed policies and military approaches that have repeatedly proven to be counterproductive in the extreme in enhancing its “appeal” and/or “allure.” High among these was the utterly mindless webcast beheadings of American hostages in 2014 that turned the United States almost overnight from a wary spectator into a dedicated military opponent.