Archives: 08/2015

TSA’s Classified “Risk-Reduction Analysis”

Last month, our friends at the Competitive Enterprise Institute filed suit against the TSA because the agency failed to follow basic administrative procedures when it deployed its notorious “strip-search machines” for use in primary screening at our nation’s airports. Four years after being ordered to do so by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, TSA still hasn’t completed the process of taking comments from the public and finalizing a regulation setting this policy. Here’s hoping CEI’s effort helps make TSA obey the law.

The reason why federal law requires agencies to hear from the public is so that they can craft the best possible rules. Nobody believes in agency omniscience. Public input is essential to gathering the information for setting good policies.

But an agency can’t get good information if it doesn’t share the evidence, facts, and inferences that underlie its proposals and rules. That’s why this week I’ve sent TSA a request for mandatory declassification review relating to a study that it says supports its strip-search machine policy. The TSA is keeping its study secret.

In its woefully inadequate (and still unfinished) policy proposal on strip-search machines, TSA summarily asserted: “[R]isk reduction analysis shows that the chance of a successful terrorist attack on aviation targets generally decreases as TSA deploys AIT. However, the results of TSA’s risk-reduction analysis are classified.”

Fed Officials Endorse Monetary Commission!

According to a report I have before me, straight from the U.S. Senate, prominent Federal Reserve officials, including the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia, have publicly endorsed legislation that would establish a bipartisan Monetary Commission authorized “to make a thorough study of the country’s entire banking and monetary set-up,” and to evaluate various alternative reforms, including a “return to the gold coin standard.” The proposed commission would be the first such undertaking since the Aldrich-Vreeland Act established the original National Monetary Commission in 1908.

Surprised? It gets better. The same Senate document includes a letter from the Fed’s Chairman, addressed to the Senate Banking Committee, indicating that the Board of Governors itself welcomes the proposed commission. Such a commission, the letter says, “would be desirable and could be expected to form the basis for conservative legislation in this field.”

Can it be? Have Fed officials had a sudden change of heart? Have they really decided to welcome the proposed “Centennial Monetary Commission” with open arms? Is it time to break out the Dom Pérignon, or have I just been daydreaming?

Is the Bombastic Donald the Best of a Bad GOP Lot on Foreign Policy?

Donald Trump has wrecked the best plans of nearly a score of “serious” Republican presidential candidates. Yet, what may be most extraordinary about his campaign is that, on foreign policy at least, he may be the most sensible Republican in the race. It is the “mainstream” and “acceptable” Republicans who are most extreme, dangerous, and unrealistic.

First, the Republicans scream that the world has never been so dangerous. Yet when in history has a country been as secure as America from existential and even substantial threats?

Hyperbole is Trump’s stock in trade, but he has used it only sparingly on foreign policy. Referring to North Korea, for instance, he claimed: “this world is just blowing up around us.” But he used that as a justification for talking to North Korea, not going to war.

New Jersey: Briefly Leaving Kid Alone In Car May Not Constitute Abuse

Last year in this space, I wrote about a case in which a New Jersey appeals court found that a mother could be put on the state’s child abuse registry, with life-changing consequences, for having left her sleeping toddler alone in the back seat of her locked, running car while she ran into a store briefly. No harm had come to the child during the ten minutes and an investigation found nothing else wrong with the family. 

Now a unanimous New Jersey Supreme Court has reversed that decisionNot only does the mother deserve a hearing before being put on the registry, it said, but such a hearing should not find neglect unless her conduct is found to have placed the child at “imminent risk of harm.” 

The battle is by no means over. The New Jersey Department of Children and Families vowed to continue its efforts to hold the mother responsible for gross neglect, its spokesperson saying that “leaving a child alone in a vehicle – even for just a minute – is a dangerous and risky decision.” That’s one view. Another view is the one I expressed last year: 

When the law behaves this way, is it really protecting children? What about the risks children face when their parent is pulled into the police or Child Protective Services system because of overblown fears about what conceivably might have happened, but never did?

For much more on this subject, check out the speech at Cato last year (with me moderating) by the founder of the Free-Range Kids movement, Lenore Skenazy, who has written extensively on the New Jersey case. She’s also been contributed the lead essay at a Cato Unbound symposium on children’s safety and liberty. We’ve also covered the celebrated case of the Meitiv family of Silver Spring, Md., who have faced extensive hassles from Montgomery County, Md. Child Protective Services for letting their children walk home alone from a local park. 

This post was adapted and expanded from Overlawyered.

Extreme Poverty’s End in Sight

Ending extreme poverty may sound like a remote dream voiced by idealists and beauty pageant contestants, but that goal’s attainment is actually closer than you think. The share of people living in absolute poverty (i.e., living on less than $1 a day) has dwindled to around five percent of the world’s population. Much of this progress can be attributed to massive poverty reduction in China that elevated hundreds of millions of people out of destitution.

Not only has the share of the global population living on less than $1 a day fallen, but so has the total number of people living on less than $1 a day. This is incredible when one takes into account population growth.  Consider the graph below, showing the total number of absolute poor decrease by more than 700 million between 1981 and 2008, even as the world population rose by 48 percent (i.e., over 2 billion). Again, a large part of this improvement can be explained by China. Even if one excludes China, close to 200 million people escaped absolute poverty over this time period.

Stock Market Crash No Argument against Social Security Accounts

There have been many good, if ultimately unconvincing, arguments against allowing younger workers to privately invest a portion of their Social Security taxes through personal accounts.  There have been even more silly ones.  One of the silliest is the one regurgitated Monday by ThinkProgress, that this week’s stock market decline proves that “If Social Security Had Been In Private Accounts The Stock Market Drop Could Have Been A Disaster.”

Few personal account plans would require a retiree to cash out their entire account on the day that the market crashed.  But what if they did?  It is important to understand that someone retiring Monday would have begun paying into their account 40 years ago when the Dow was at 835.34.  After yesterday’s decline, it opened at 15,676 today.  Over those 40 years, the worker would have made roughly 1,040 contributions to their account.  Only 48 of them would have been at a time when the market was higher than today’s open.

Yep, even after Monday’s crash, the worker would have made a tidy profit.  In fact, his return would have been substantially higher than what he could expect to receive from Social Security. 

The last that defenders of the status quo made this argument was 2009, during the market crash that led into the Great Recession.  At that time the market hit a low of 6,547.   Obviously, if workers had been allowed to start investing then, they would have done pretty well.  But more importantly, retirees in 2009 would have done well too, once again better than Social Security.

Cato published this comprehensive study of that downturn and its impact on personal accounts.

Social Security is running nearly $26 trillion in future unfunded liabilities.  It cannot pay promised future benefits to young workers without substantial tax hikes.  We should begin a discussion of how to reform this troubled program.  A start to such a discussion would be to retire the canard about market crashes and personal accounts.

Cross-posted at TannerOnPolicy

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American Christians Should Stop Hurting Sudanese Christians With Sanctions

KHARTOUM, SUDAN—Ubiquitous American advertising is absent in Sudan. Washington bans most imports and exports to the country. Among the strongest supporters of economic coercion have been American Christians, seeking to punish the Muslim-dominated central government for its brutal conduct in past ethnic conflicts.

While the combat has largely ceased, the embargo remains. And Sudanese Christians with whom I recently spoke said that they suffer when Washington penalizes the Sudanese people for Khartoum’s sins. Rev. Filotheos Farag of Khartoum’s El Shahidein Coptic Church, explained “we want to cancel all the sanctions.”

The Clinton administration first imposed restrictions two decades ago for Sudan’s alleged sponsorship of terrorism. But the Obama administration admits that Khartoum cooperates with the United States today.