Archives: December, 2012

Current Wisdom: New Research Calls into Question High Rates of Sea Level Rise

The Current Wisdom is a series of monthly articles in which Patrick J. Michaels, director of the Center for the Study of Science, reviews interesting items on global warming in the scientific literature that may not have received the media attention that they deserved, or have been misinterpreted in the popular press.


In its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that as a result of warming primarily caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, global mean sea level would rise from 1990 through 2100 from 0.18 to 0.59 meters (7 to 23 in.) with perhaps another 0.1 to 0.2 meters (4 to 8 in.) on top of that if the rates of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica continued to grow linearly (from their 1993-2002 rates).

Some of our colleagues who are of a particularly “concerned” persuasion accused the IPCC of being far too conservative in these estimates; it’s true that the IPCC’s central estimate of 15 inches is hardly alarming.  NASA’s Jim Hansen went as far as to accuse the IPCC and others of “scientific reticence” (Hansen claims that scientists are generally reluctant to announce bad news. Judge that one for yourself.) with regard to sea level rise. For his part, Hansen shares no such reticence, and doesn’t mind telling anyone who asks (and many who don’t) that we should be expecting upwards of 6 meters (236 in.) of sea level rise in a hundred years.  He has even stated that the majority of this could occur by 2100. Clearly, there is a world of difference (and a different world) between the IPCC central estimate of 15 inches and Hansen’s 20 feet.

As if on cue, a bunch of apparently non-“reticent” scientists suddenly emerged, trying to show that the IPCC was wrong and of course, that things are “worse than we thought”.

They developed a technique that, to the non-perseverators in the crowd, seems quite reasonable, a “semi-empirical” method which ties historical sea level rise to the rate of global mean temperature change.  They used this relationship rather than the computer-generated rises in sea level that come out of climate models, which is what backs the IPCC projections. Instead they only used the global temperature change projections from the same climate models, and then coupled those with their semi-empirical relationship between temperature and sea level to make their projections. Such a technique almost invariably yields greater rates of sea level rise, with the upper end of the range of projected values often exceeding 1 meter (39 in.) by the year 2100.

One potential problem is that the empirical relationship between sea level and global temperature may not be valid—even though it seems simple and straightforward.  A new multi-authored study argues cogently that indeed the semi-empiricists have fallen into this simple trap.

Newtown: A “9/11 for Schools”?

…That’s what a security consultant told Fox News’s Megyn Kelly last week on the day of the Newtown elementary school massacre. We’ll need armed guards, “perimeter security, CCTV, preventative issues with the school psychiatrist [and] police department…” and the whole panoply of items his firm recommends. Newtown, he summed up, “is going to be for schools what 9/11 was for airports.”
In my Washington Examiner column this week, I warn that “If the reaction to the tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School is anything like the reaction to September 11, we’re in for a decade or more of frantic overreaction and wasteful, destructive policies based on the false promise of perfect safety.” The fact is, as I point out in the column, school is one of the safest places your child can be. In terms of child fatalities, both the backyard pool and the family car are far more dangerous than the classroom. The federal government’s annual report on school violence, Indicators of School Crime and Safety notes that ”over all available survey years, the percentage of youth homicides occurring at school remained at less than 2 percent of the total number of youth homicides.”  As Daniel Gardner puts it in his 2008 book The Science of Fear, year upon year, ”a student’s risk of being murdered in school was de minimis – so tiny it was effectively zero.”   Granted, it certainly doesn’t feel de minimis, after last week’s sickening events.  It even feels callous to put the risk in perspective.  But parents shouldn’t be told their children aren’t safe, and legislators shouldn’t rush to pass laws based on that fear.  In The Science of Fear, Gardner explains that “One of the most consistent findings of risk-perception research is that we overestimate the likelihood of being killed by the things that make the evening news and underestimate those that don’t.” The “rare, vivid, and catastrophic killers” we see on 24-hour-cable news engage our primate “fight or flight” hardwiring, override our rational faculty, and tend to make us “probability blind.” But, Gardner argues, “probability blindness is itself dangerous. It can easily lead people to overreact to risks and do something stupid like abandoning air travel because terrorists hijacked four planes.” And it often, as David Boaz suggests below, spurs legislative panics that leave us no safer, but poorer and less free. 

Robert Bork, R.I.P

Judge Robert Bork died today. He was 85. He will be remembered for many things that marked his long and varied public life—the students he taught at the Yale Law School, many of whom went on to distinguished careers of their own; his service in the Nixon administration as solicitor general of the United States, during which time he was called upon to fire Watergate Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox; his appointment by President Reagan as a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit; his subsequent nomination, in 1987, to be an associate justice on the United States Supreme Court, which failed following one of the stormiest confirmation battles in the nation’s history; and of course his many seminal writings over his long career, which were instrumental in shaping the modern conservative legal movement. It is these that will be my focus in this short remembrance.

After earning his bachelor’s and law degrees at the University of Chicago—the latter interrupted by service as a Marine officer during the Korean War—Bork practiced law during the 1950s before joining the Yale faculty in 1962. Having been influenced by Chicago’s economists, he was something of a libertarian, especially in his thinking about antitrust. In fact, his The Antitrust Paradox, published in 1978, shifted the entire focus of antitrust policy toward consumer welfare.

But at Yale, especially under the influence of his close friend and colleague, Alexander Bickel, Bork turned his attention also to constitutional law. Although Bickel could be called a liberal, in contrast to Bork’s emerging conservatism, both were concerned about what they saw, not without reason, as the “judicial activism” of the Warren and, later, Burger Courts. Thus in time—through his writings, his prominence, and his judicial opinions—Bork became one of the (if not the) most important voices in shaping the conservative response to the modern liberal understanding of the Constitution.

That response is best appreciated by noting first that, during the New Deal, the Court’s liberals had turned the Constitution on its head, following Roosevelt’s infamous Court-packing threat, by reading it as having authorized effectively unlimited regulatory and redistributive powers and as having protected only those rights that were consistent with that expansive governmental vision. Thus what followed was judicial deference to the political branches. By the mid-1950s, however, especially as civil rights concerns grew ever larger in the nation, the Court began to rethink its posture of “judicial restraint.” But what followed was an essentially untethered series of judicial opinions, some long overdue, others a reflection simply of the justices’ understanding of “evolving social values.” And the latter, in particular, were the ones that animated the conservative response, because conservatives, often rightly, saw the Court as imposing a liberal political agenda on the nation, contrary to the express wishes of the political branches.

That view, of course, was the target of the Senate Judiciary Committee members during the stormy hearings in 1987. Much of that criticism—from Senator Edward Kennedy, for example—was grossly unfair. But the critique stuck, because there was enough truth to it to do so.

In particular, as became crystal clear in Bork’s The Tempting of America, published in 1990, two years after he had stepped down from his seat on the D.C. Circuit, the view Bork and many other conservatives had staked out was itself less than faithful to the Constitution. As a few of us in the libertarian camp had been saying since the mid-1970s, neither the post-New Deal liberals (including the Warren/Burger variants) nor the conservatives who had reacted to them had grasped the Madisonian vision. It was not, as Bork wrote in 1990, that in “wide areas” majorities could rule simply because they were majorities (a view both camps held); but in “some areas” minorities were entitled to be free from majority rule (a view also held by both camps, although they differed profoundly about what those areas were, with liberals slighting economic liberties and property rights, conservatives slighting many personal liberties). Rather, Madison (and the Founders more broadly) stood for the principle that in “wide areas” individuals were entitled to be free because they were born free, whereas in “some areas” majorities were entitled to rule because the Constitution authorized them to.

We owe Bork credit, however, not simply for the often lonely struggle he waged against the liberal legal orthodoxy but for sharpening the debate as he did. He was a learned and gentle soul who made his mark on his world. May he rest in peace.

Portugal May Become the First of Europe’s Bankrupt Welfare States to Stumble upon a Genuine Recovery Formula: Less Spending AND Lower Tax Rates

There aren’t many fiscal policy role models in Europe.

Switzerland surely is at the top of the list. The burden of government spending is modest by European standards, in part because of a very good spending cap that prevents politicians from overspending when revenues are buoyant. Tax rates also are reasonable. The central government’s tax system is “progressive,” but the top rate is only 11.5 percent. And tax competition among the cantons ensures that sub-national tax rates don’t get too high. Because of these good policies, Switzerland completely avoided the fiscal crisis plaguing the rest of the continent.

Passing of a Conservative Legal Giant

While libertarians have many disagreements with Robert Bork, it’s undeniable that the man had an outsized impact on law and legal policy that included fomenting the pushback against the progressive excesses of the Warren Court.  Best known to the public as the prickly arch-conservative who (illegally) fired the special Watergate prosecutor and was rejected for the Supreme Court—after a nomination that set the bitter stage for modern confirmation battles—Bork’s enduring legacy lies elsewhere.  His work on antitrust law, in line with the nascent law-and-economics movement, transformed the field into one focused on consumer welfare rather than government management of industry and continues to influence legal doctrine and jurisprudence.  His pioneering development of originalism as the one coherent method of constitutional interpretation led to a revival of the once-quaint idea that constitutional text, structure, and history matter more than the subjective policy views of particular judges.

Bork was certainly, inexcusably wrong in emphasizing judicial restraint over getting the law right—John Roberts’s vote in the Obamacare case was a fruit of that poisonous tree—and in reading unenumerated natural rights out of the Constitution (famously likening the Ninth Amendment to “an ink blot”).  He also misunderstood the “Madisonian dilemma” of judges making unpopular rulings, positing that majorities are entitled to rule in wide swaths of life, with limited exceptions for individual freedom—that’s exactly backwards!  And he, like Justice Scalia, too easily made peace with the New Deal’s abandonment of the doctrine of enumerated powers, which resulted in the government getting the benefit of the doubt not much less than from liberal jurists.  In the end, however, we should remember him as an intellectual powerhouse who nearly single-handedly fought the progressive hijacking of the law until better reinforcements could arrive.  R.I.P.

Libertarians and Right to Work Laws

Right-to-work laws are back in the news after the one-time union stronghold of Michigan passed one.

Vinnie Vernuccio and Joe Lehman of Michigan’s Mackinac Center for Public Policy take a victory lap in the Wall Street Journal, agreeing with Governor Rick Snyder in calling the bill “pro-worker”:

Right to work does not change any aspect of collective bargaining other than preventing employees from getting fired for choosing not to join or remain in a union and pay union dues or agency fees, which may go toward political causes they don’t support. Collective bargaining still exists in right-to-work states, and workers are of course free to organize.

But not all libertarians agree. In the same day’s Wall Street Journal, columnist Holman Jenkins notes that

right-to-work laws are designed to restrict an employer’s freedom of contract. They prohibit an employer from making union membership a condition of employment.

Jenkins sees this restriction of contract as a “bad fix trying to compensate for a prior bad law,” the 1935 Wagner Act. Jenkins prefers what he calls a “principled” approach to the problem of worker-employer freedom – the “deregulation of labor relations.” That would allow employers the ability to make union membership a condition for employment if they so choose. Or not.

Sheldon Richman, a longtime libertarian who was for many years editor of the Freeman at the Foundation for Economic Education and is now vice president of the Future of Freedom Foundation, similarly views right-to-work laws as a bad intervention trying to counterbalance another bad intervention. He quotes Percy Greaves Jr., a student of Ludwig von Mises: “Intervention creates problems that, unless the original intervention is repealed, beget further intervention, and so on.” Richman urges instead that we “let states opt out of the Wagner regime….Rather than prohibiting voluntary union-shop agreements between employers and unions, a state legislature could pass a bill simply declaring that the NLRB had no jurisdiction in that state.” He also examines the views of scholars such as Hayek and Mises on right-to-work laws.

Gary Chartier, whose book Anarchy and Legal Order: Law and Politics for a Stateless Society, is about to come out from Cambridge University Press, also says, “Right-to-work laws limit workers’ and employers’ freedom of contract. They prevent workers and employers from making mutually beneficial agreements. They don’t belong in a free society.”

Economist David Henderson counters with an argument about second-best solutions:

Gary avoids mention of the word “monopoly.” He recognizes that federal labor law gives unions the power to negotiate for the whole labor force in a plant or a firm. That’s monopoly. Many libertarians, including me, have looked much more favorably on “right to work” laws as an offset to this illegitimate government-created monopoly. It’s only a small offset, as we’ll see.

So what do you do, given that we have this federal law that Gary and I agree is a bad law? Try to abolish it, of course. But what do you do meanwhile? Many libertarians have argued that you work within the existing law to try to minimize the harm done by monopoly unionism. And a way to do that is with right-to-work laws.

It’s true that such laws make it illegal for employers to do what some of them mightwant to do: namely hire only union workers, require everyone who works for them to join unions, or require everyone who works for them to pay dues to a union. But are there really likely to be many such employers? I don’t think so.

Shikha Dalmia of the Reason Foundation hammers home that point:

To oppose all reform that does not deliver total freedom in one fell swoop is a recipe for policy paralysis. Right-to-work laws are desirable because, although they are partial, they are still pareto-optimal: By limiting the powers of union bosses, they leave employers no worse off and workers somewhat better off.

Once again, there are disagreements about policy among libertarians who share very similar economic and philosophical principles.

Beware the Data!

Something that seems to get broad support among policy people is government collecting more data and using new statistics to “inform” the public, politicians, and researchers. After all, knowing more helps us to be good consumers, right?

Maybe, but that doesn’t outweigh the myriad pitfalls of politicians and other people having more statistics to abuse.

The biggest danger is one we should have learned about from K-12 education. The No Child Left Behind Act requires that all parents be told whether their children are “proficient” in math and reading, and whether their schools are making “adequate yearly progress” toward all kids hitting proficiency. The only problem? –There are actually many, but the biggest is that most states have defined “proficiency” at levels that are, generally speaking, anything but. So parents have new information, but it is, essentially, a lie.

Then there’s the problem of cherry-picking data. Who hasn’t heard wailing over the decreasing percentage of funding for public colleges that has come from states? Seemingly anyone who wants more taxpayer dough in the Ivory Tower uses that stat to suggest that schools have had their funding “cut to the bone.” But they haven’t – for the most part other revenue sources have just grown faster. It’s not unlike complaining that your salary as a percentage of your income has dropped after winning the lottery.

Finally, there’s the problem of data being used to narrow what we are allowed to choose. Again, look at K-12 education, where there is an obsession with standardized testing. The danger is that what can easily be tested is not the whole – or perhaps even a large part – of a good education, but because it seems more concrete it is what we focus on. Indeed, East Asian nations are consistently the highest scorers on international exams, and we are warned repeatedly that we must either catch up or suffer. But in terms of economic growth and happiness – basically the two main things people hope to use education to achieve – the United States has often outshone countries that have beaten us on test scores. And many East Asian nations are trying very hard to get away from their grinding, test-obsessed systems to move toward systems that inculcate fuzzy, but real, things like “critical thinking.”

Unfortunately, the natural bias is to focus on things that you can measure and, if you are a politician, reduce to a sound bite that sounds authoritative because there is a number attached to it. But like colorful pills, data can be useful when used properly, but are also deceptively – and dangerously – innocent looking.

Beware!

Cross-posted at seethruedu.com