Archives: September, 2012

A New Kind of Trade War

In the past, a “trade war” was something to be avoided at all costs.  It meant a spiral of protectionist measures:  one country would adopt some form of protectionism, and its trading partners would respond in kind.  The impact on the global economy could be disastrous.

Today, by contrast, trade conflict often involves a tit-for-tat litigation process in which countries challenge each other’s trade barriers before the World Trade Organization.  The result can actually be beneficial, as successful complaints usually lead to the removal of trade restrictions.  As a result, the “trade wars” of today may lead to less protectionism rather than more.

Recent developments related to Argentina’s trade policy provide a good illustration.  Last year, Argentina decided to take a much more interventionist and protectionist approach to trade policy, with a goal of encouraging domestic production.  To take an example provide by The Economist, through the use of import licensing restrictions, Argentina effectively required foreign mobile phone makers to assemble and package phones in Argentina rather than exporting them for direct sale there.

Other countries took notice of Argentina’s measures, and a number of them spoke up at a WTO meeting in March of this year.  But no formal complaint was filed at that time.

Then in April, Argentina decided to nationalize the subsidiary of a Spanish-owned oil company, YPF.  There was talk of a WTO complaint, but it seemed clear that WTO rules did not have much to say about the issue and no action was taken.  Instead, Spain acted in the manner of a traditional trade war:  it imposed restrictions on biodiesel imports from Argentina (which provided the bulk of its supply of these products).

At that point, though, the emerging trade war began to take a different shape.

Initially, Argentina’s reaction was muted.  President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner said:  “If Spain’s government wants its own businesses to pay more for biodiesel, that’s a sovereign decision.”  Argentina would not challenge such measures at the WTO, she added.

But then the tit-for-tat trade litigation began.  The EU moved forward with a challenge to the licensing and other trade restrictions imposed by Argentina, filing a request for consultations at the WTO.  Thus, instead of taking protectionist actions in response to Argentina’s behavior, the EU chose to go after Argentina’s own barriers.

That must have caused Argentina to re-think its position on challenging the biodiesels restrictions, because in August Argentina asked for WTO consultations in that case.

At that point, the United States, Japan, and Mexico piled on in the trade restrictions case against Argentina, each requesting consultations of its own.

In response, Argentina has now filed complaints against the United States on alleged import restrictions on meat products and lemons.  (As of this writing, there is no word on whether Argentina will challenge any Japanese or Mexican trade barriers.)

The initial response by Spain to restrict Argentine biodiesel imports provides a good contrast between the old and new styles of trade war.  The old trade war involved spiraling trade barriers as countries responded to foreign protectionism with their own protectionism.  The new trade war, by contrast, involves a spiral of legal challenges to foreign protectionism.

Argentina’s complaints against the U.S. restrictions were not out of the blue.  There had been lingering trade concerns for years.  But now Argentina had a reason to raise them:  if you are going to challenge us, we will challenge you.

Complaints at the WTO do not always lead to a finding of violation of trade rules, of course.  The rules are complex and every case must be evaluated on its own merits.  But nevertheless, the notion that, in the current version of a trade war, challenges to trade restrictions will be met with challenges to other trade restrictions is a vast improvement over the old-style trade war.  With trade negotiations progressing so slowly these days, we should be happy if trade litigation can bring about some degree of liberalization.

It is worth noting that there are potential pitfalls.  The WTO litigation system could be overwhelmed with cases; and in the search for cases to bring in response, countries might choose to file somewhat frivolous cases that might not otherwise have been brought.  But despite such concerns, a shift away from the old-style trade war is of great benefit to the world trading system and to the cause of free trade.

Is Government like Immigrants?

In his speech last night, President Obama listed a lot of groups of people whom we shouldn’t blame for “all our problems”:

We don’t think the government can solve all our problems. But we don’t think that the government is the source of all our problems, any more than are welfare recipients, or corporations, or unions, or immigrants, or gays, or any other group we’re told to blame for our troubles.

He’s right to discourage scapegoating. But there’s a category error here. Government is not just a group of people distinguished by their place of birth, or sexual orientation, or economic organization. Government is defined by its power to use force to achieve its purposes. Gays and immigrants don’t have such power. Neither do corporations or unions or welfare recipients.

No one blames governments for “all our problems.” Indeed, libertarians should be the first to remember, as Dr. Johnson told us,

How small, of all that human hearts endure,
That part which laws or kings can cause or cure!

But the introduction of force into human relationships does cause many problems. Taxes reduce incentives and distort decisions, not to mention limiting our freedom. Government spending likewise distorts economic decisions. Government regulation impels people to expend resources in ways that don’t best serve consumer desires. Central bank manipulation of the money supply introduces massive distortions into economic decisionmaking, often bringing about cycles of boom and bust. Drug prohibition, conscription, tariffs, punitive taxes, the exclusion of people from social and economic life on the basis of their race or gender or religion or sexual orientation—a large part of the activities of modern governments do cause many of our problems.

So President Obama is right to warn us against blaming our problems on “any other group,” just as President Clinton was right to warn us in his own acceptance speech 20 years ago not to blame “them—Them, the minorities. Them, the liberals. Them, the poor. Them, the homeless. Them, the people with disabilities. Them, the gays.” But blaming government is not equivalent to that kind of scapegoating.

When we “blame government,” we’re doing two things:

1. We’re pointing to specific policies that caused problems such as the financial crisis or prohibition-related crime or failing public schools.

2. We’re blaming the process of government, which necessarily involves coercion, predation, politicization, the diversion of resources to less-valued uses, and thus a reduced standard of living.

That’s not scapegoating. It’s analysis. It’s economics, history, political theory, and sociology.

Unregulated Is Not Unconstrained

The forces that constrain behavior are manifold—moral, physical, financial, reputational, and so on. Formally, the word “regulate,” with its roots in the Latin regulare (“to control by rule, direct”), refers to only one kind of constraint: the governmental kind (or at least some kind of authority). Yet when one calls something “unregulated,” that often seems to imply that it can act on whim, launching itself in any direction it likes. Not so.

Foreign Affairs has a capsule review of a book on non-governmental organizations that relies on the distinction between other constraints and government regulation. The review describes the factors that arguably cause international NGOs to behave well, even though they are “not regulated.”

NGOs are extremely sensitive to criticism and to the fact that their authority flows from a reputation for fairness and integrity. Chapters explore NGOs in areas such as child labor, elections, and human rights, identifying the ways these groups have strengthened their credibility by increasing their own transparency, professionalizing their staffs, and integrating themselves into the wider community of NGOs, which informally commits them to shared standards of conduct. And although NGOs are not regulated, this book makes clear that they are disciplined by the complex donor-client environment in which they operate.

My sense is that the word “regulate” is migrating from its origin in referring to formal and governmental rules to a more general sense of any constraint. (I’m dubious of the move in the opposite direction, which would treat any constraint as governmental.) Until it completes that journey, if you find yourself talking about regulation—and especially if you use the word “unregulated”—it would be helpful to bracket that word by describing which kind of constraint you are talking about. Unregulated is not unconstrained.

Clinton and Obama, Polar Opposites

Last night, Bill Clinton introduced President Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. He went to great lengths to stress their similarities, but failed to mention their divergent views on the appropriate size of government.

When President Clinton took office in 1993, government expenditures were 22.1% of GDP, and when he departed in 2000, the federal government’s share of the economy had been squeezed to a low of 18.2%. As the accompanying table shows, during the Clinton years, federal government expenditures as a percent of GDP fell by 3.9 percentage points. No other modern president has come close.

 

And, that’s not all. During the final three years of the former President’s second term, the federal government was generating fiscal surpluses. Clinton was even confident enough to boldly claim, in his January 1996 State of the Union address, that “the era of big government is over.”

When it comes to the appropriate size of government, Clinton and Obama are polar opposites.

Sunlight Before Signing: Measuring a Campaign Promise

And when there’s a bill that ends up on my desk as president, you, the public, will have five days to look online and find out what’s in it before I sign it, so that you know what your government’s doing.

When candidate Obama spoke that line on the campaign trail (starting around 1:00 in the video), it was met with a hail of applause. This same promise was featured on his campaign web site. He laid out a vision for a transparent, responsive government.

The interesting thing about this particular promise—what made it a rarity in campaigns—was that it was measurable. We could learn by watching whether President Obama would deliver on this promise.

So I did.

Over the last three-and-a-half years, I’ve taken note of when Congress has presented bills to the president, when they’ve been posted (accessibly) on Whitehouse.gov, and when the president has signed them.

This is my thirty-seventh post on the topic. Each character in that last sentence is a link to a previous post. Read through to see the full saga of Sunlight Before Signing implementation.

But enough chatter. How has the president done on a simple, straightforward campaign promise that would make the government more open and transparent?

The current tally is…(drumroll please)…

just under two-thirds compliance!

As the summary table below illustrates, the Obama White House almost completely disregarded the Sunlight Before Signing promise in the first year. In fact, it was the president’s first broken promise. Since then, the president has improved, but not by so much that people have come to rely on Sunlight Before Signing to “know what [their] government’s doing.”

  Number of Bills Emergency Bills Bills Posted Five Days %
2009 124 0 6 4.8%
2010 258 1 186 72.4%
2011 81 0 55 67.9%
2012 92 0 75 81.5%
Overall 555 1 368 66.3%

Here’s part of why they don’t rely on it: We learned through study that the important bills tend notto get five days of public review before the president signs them. The ones that almost always do are the bills to rename post offices, change the borders of national parks, and such.

When the president promised Sunlight Before Signing, it was possible the strict adherence to his pledge from the first days of his presidency would have encouraged people to use the process as a tool for government oversight. I disagree with the point that bills sent to the president are faits accomplis. Sunlight Before Signing would have changed the “upstream” behavior of legislators who would not want to be caught out inserting the earmark or parochial amendment that takes down a bill.

Now the question stands: Will President Obama continue to implement Sunlight Before Signing in a second term? If so, will he apply the rule to all bills so that people can rely on having five days to review the legislation Congress sends him?

A legitimate alternative for President Obama is to swear off that campaign promise as improvidently made. Arguably, it was. Since then, we have learned through study (my study, in particular) that transparency is a set of practices making data reliably available and machine-discoverable and -readable.

If President Obama wants to do something for transparency, he could do something as simple as publish a federal government organization chart in machine-readable format so that legislation, oversight, and spending data could be linked to the unique identifiers for agencies, bureaus, programs, and projects, as well as authorizations, obligations, and outlays.

The Office of Management and Budget is becoming conspicuous for its foot-dragging in this area, and even its opposition to steps that would improve government transparency. If President Obama wants to be a transparency president, he could perfectly well shed Sunlight Before Signing and pledge in this campaign to make at least the organizational data OMB holds in the MAX database available to the public.

Needless to say, the Romney campaign can highlight President Obama’s inability to deliver on his soaring transparency promises by pledging to take the concrete steps noted above. I’d report just as doggedly on his compliance with such a promise.

While we wait, here are all the bills passed so far in the 112th Congress and their treatment under President Obama’s Sunlight Before Signing promise.

Public Law Date Presented Date Signed Posted [(Linked)]? Posted Five Days?
P.L. 112-1, To provide for an additional temporary extension of programs under the Small Business Act and the Small Business Investment Act of 1958, and for other purposes 1/28/2011 1/31/2011 [1/28/2011] No
P.L. 112-2, A bill to designate the United States courthouse under construction at 98 West First Street, Yuma, Arizona, as the “John M. Roll United States Courthouse” 2/11/2011 2/17/2011 [2/11/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-3, The FISA Sunsets Extension Act of 2011 2/23/2011 2/25/2011 [2/23/2011 No
P.L. 112-4, The Further Continuing Appropriations Amendments, 2011 3/2/2011 3/2/2011 [3/2/2011] No
P.L. 112-5, The Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2011 3/3/2011 3/4/2011 No No
P.L. 112-6, The Additional Continuing Appropriations Amendments, 2011 3/17/2011 3/18/2011 No No
P.L. 112-7, The Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2011 3/30/2011 3/31/2011 3/30/2011 No
P.L. 112-8, The Department of Defense and Further Additional Continuing Appropriations Act, 2011 4/9/2011 4/9/2011 No No
P.L. 112-9, The Comprehensive 1099 Taxpayer Protection and Repayment of Exchange Subsidy Overpayments Act of 2011 4/6/2011 4/14/2011 [4/7/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-10, The Department of Defense and Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act, 2011 4/15/2011 4/15/2011 [4/14/2011] No
P.L. 112-11, A bill to designate the Federal building and United States courthouse located at 217 West King Street, Martinsburg, West Virginia, as the “W. Craig Broadwater Federal Building and United States Courthouse” 4/14/2011 4/25/2011 [4/14/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-12, A joint resolution providing for the appointment of Stephen M. Case as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonian Institution 4/14/2011 4/25/2011 [4/14/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-13, To amend the Ronald Reagan Centennial Commission Act to extend the termination date for the Commission, and for other purposes 5/2/2011 5/12/2011 [5/2/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-14, The PATRIOT Sunsets Extension Act of 2011 5/26/2011 5/26/2011 No No
P.L. 112-15, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 12781 Sir Francis Drake Boulevard in Inverness, California, as the “Specialist Jake Robert Velloza Post Office” 5/26/2011 5/31/2011 [5/26/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-16, The Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2011, Part II 5/26/2011 5/31/2011 [5/26/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-17, The Small Business Additional Temporary Extension Act of 2011 6/1/2011 6/1/2011 [6/1/2011] No
P.L. 112-18, The Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2011 6/1/2011 6/8/2011 [6/1/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-19, A joint resolution providing for the reappointment of Shirley Ann Jackson as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonian Institution 6/21/2011 6/24/2011 [6/21/2011] No
P.L. 112-20, A joint resolution providing for the reappointment of Robert P. Kogod as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonian Institution 6/21/2011 6/24/2011 [6/21/2011] No
P.L. 112-21, The Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2011, Part III 6/28/2011 6/29/2011 [6/28/2011] No
P.L. 112-22, A bill to designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 4865 Tallmadge Road in Rootstown, Ohio, as the “Marine Sgt. Jeremy E. Murray Post 6/23/2011 6/29/2011 [6/23/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-23, A bill to designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 95 Dogwood Street in Cary, Mississippi, as the “Spencer Byrd Powers, Jr. Post Office” 6/23/2011 6/29/2011 [6/23/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-24, A bill to extend the term of the incumbent Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation 7/26/2011 7/26/2011 [7/26/2011] No
P.L. 112-25, The Budget Control Act of 2011 8/2/2011 8/2/2011 No No
P.L. 112-26, The Restoring GI Bill Fairness Act of 2011 7/28/2011 8/3/2011 [7/28/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-27, The Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2011, Part IV 8/5/2011 8/5/2011 [8/5/2011] No
P.L. 112-28, To provide the Consumer Product Safety Commission with greater authority and discretion in enforcing the consumer product safety laws, and for other purposes 8/5/2011 8/12/2011 [8/5/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-29, The America Invents Act 9/12/2011 9/16/2011 [9/12/2011] No
P.L. 112-30, The Surface and Air Transportation Programs Extension Act of 2011 9/16/2011 9/16/2011 No No
P.L. 112-31, A bill to designate the United States courthouse located at 80 Lafayette Street in Jefferson City, Missouri, as the Christopher S. Bond United States Courthouse 9/22/2011 9/23/2011 [9/22/2011] No
P.L. 112-32, The Combating Autism 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 [9/29/2011] No
P.L. 112-33, The Continuing Appropriations Act, 2012 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 [9/29/2011] No
P.L. 112-34, The Child and Family Services Improvement and Innovation Act 9/27/2011 9/30/2011 [9/28/2011] No
P.L. 112-35, The Short-Term TANF Extension Act 9/27/2011 9/30/2011 [9/27/2011] No
P.L. 112-36, The Continuing Appropriations Act, 2012 10/4/2011 10/5/2011 [10/4/2011] No
P.L. 112-37, The Veterans Health Care Facilities Capital Improvement Act of 2011 9/27/2011 10/5/2011 [9/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-38, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1081 Elbel Road in Schertz, Texas, as the “Schertz Veterans Post Office” 10/6/2011 10/12/2011 [10/6/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-39, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 5014 Gary Avenue in Lubbock, Texas, as the “Sergeant Chris Davis Post Office” 10/6/2011 10/12/2011 [10/6/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-40, To extend the Generalized System of Preferences, and for other purposes 10/13/2011 10/21/2011 [10/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-41, The United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act 10/13/2011 10/21/2011 [10/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-42, The United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement Implementation Act 10/13/2011 10/21/2011 [10/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-43, The United States-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement Implementation Act 10/13/2011 10/21/2011 [10/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-44, The United States Parole Commission Extension Act of 2011 10/13/2011 10/21/2011 [10/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-45, To clarify the jurisdiction of the Secretary of the Interior with respect to the C.C. Cragin Dam and Reservoir, and for other purposes 10/31/2011 11/7/2011 10/31/2011 Yes
P.L. 112-46, The Ski Area Recreational Opportunity Enhancement Act of 2011 10/31/2011 11/7/2011 [10/31/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-47, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 489 Army Drive in Barrigada, Guam, as the “John Pangelinan Gerber Post Office Building” 10/31/2011 11/7/2011 [10/31/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-48, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 281 East Colorado Boulevard in Pasadena, California, as the “First Lieutenant Oliver Goodall Post Office Building” 10/31/2011 11/7/2011 [10/31/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-49, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 45 Meetinghouse Lane in Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, as the “Matthew A. Pucino Post Office” 10/31/2011 11/7/2011 [10/31/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-50, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 4354 Pahoa Avenue in Honolulu, Hawaii, as the “Cecil L. Heftel Post Office Building” 10/31/2011 11/7/2011 [10/31/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-51, The Removal Clarification Act of 2011 11/4/2011 11/9/2011 [11/4/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-52, To direct the Secretary of the Interior to allow for prepayment of repayment contracts between the United States and the Uintah Water Conservancy District 11/4/2011 11/9/2011 [11/4/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-53, The Veterans’ Compensation Cost-of-Living Adjustment Act of 2011 11/3/2011 11/9/2011 [11/3/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-54, The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Business Travel Cards Act of 2011 11/10/2011 11/12/2011 [11/10/2011] No
P.L. 112-55, The Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2012 11/17/2011 11/18/2011 No No
P.L. 112-56, To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to repeal the imposition of 3 percent withholding on certain payments made to vendors by government entities 11/19/2011 11/21/2011 No No
P.L. 112-57, The Kate Puzey Peace Corps Volunteer Protection Act of 2011 11/14/2011 11/21/2011 [11/14/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-58, To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to toll, during active-duty service abroad in the Armed Forces, the periods of time to file a petition and appear for an interview to remove the conditional basis for permanent resident status, and for other purposes 11/16/2011 11/23/2011 [11/16/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-59, To grant the congressional gold medal to the Montford Point Marines 11/15/2011 11/23/2011 [11/15/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-60, A bill to designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 462 Washington Street, Woburn Massachusetts, as the “Officer John Maguire Post Office” 11/17/2011 11/23/2011 [11/17/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-61, The America’s Cup Act of 2011 11/18/2011 11/29/2011 [11/21/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-62, The Appeal Time Clarification Act of 2011 11/18/2011 11/29/2011 [11/18/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-63, The Federal Courts Jurisdiction and Venue Clarification Act of 2011 12/2/2011 12/7/2011 [12/2/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-64, The National Guard and Reservist Debt Relief Extension Act of 2011 12/7/2011 12/13/2011 [12/7/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-65, A bill to revise the Federal charter for the Blue Star Mothers of America, Inc. to reflect a change in eligibility requirements for membership 12/8/2011 12/13/2011 [12/8/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-66, A bill to amend title 36, United States Code, to authorize the American Legion under its Federal charter to provide guidance and leadership to the individual departments and posts of the American Legion, and for other purposes 12/8/2011 12/13/2011 [12/8/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-67, Making further continuing appropriations for fiscal year 2012, and for other purposes 12/16/2011 12/16/2011 No No
P.L. 112-68, Making further continuing appropriations for fiscal year 2012, and for other purposes 12/17/2011 12/17/2011 No No
P.L. 112-69, The Fort Pulaski National Monument Lease Authorization Act 12/9/2011 12/19/2011 [12/9/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-70, The Box Elder Utah Land Conveyance Act 12/9/2011 12/19/2011 [12/9/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-71, A joint resolution to grant the consent of Congress to an amendment to the compact between the States of Missouri and Illinois providing that bonds issued by the Bi-State Development Agency may mature in not to exceed 40 years 12/13/2011 12/19/2011 [12/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-72, The Hoover Power Allocation Act of 2011 12/13/2011 12/20/2011 [12/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-73, The Civilian Service Recognition Act of 2011 12/13/2011 12/20/2011 [12/13/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-74, The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2012 12/21/2011 12/23/2011 [12/21/2011] No
P.L. 112-75, The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom Reform and Reauthorization Act of 2011 12/19/2011 12/23/2011 [12/19/2011] No
P.L. 112-76, The Fallen Heroes of 9/11 Act 12/19/2011 12/23/2011 [12/19/2011] No
P.L. 112-77, The Disaster Relief Appropriations Act, 2012 12/21/2011 12/23/2011 [12/21/2011] No
P.L. 112-78, The Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011 12/23/2011 12/23/2011 No No
P.L. 112-79, The Sugar Loaf Fire Protection District Land Exchange Act of 2011 12/20/2011 12/23/2011 [12/20/2011] No
P.L. 112-80, A bill to amend title 39, United States Code, to extend the authority of the United States Postal Service to issue a semipostal to raise funds for breast cancer research 12/16/2011 12/23/2011 [12/16/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-81, The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 12/21/2011 12/31/2011 [12/21/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-82, The Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Act of 2011 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-83, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 20 Main Street in Little Ferry, New Jersey, as the “Sergeant Matthew J. Fenton Post Office” 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-84, To protect the safety of judges by extending the authority of the Judicial Conference to redact sensitive information contained in their financial disclosure reports, and for other purposes 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-85, To designate the property between the United States Federal Courthouse and the Ed Jones Building located at 109 South Highland Avenue in Jackson, Tennessee, as the “M.D. Anderson Plaza” and to authorize the placement of a historical/identification marker on the grounds recognizing the achievements and philanthropy of M.D. Anderson 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-86, The Risk-Based Security Screening for Members of The Armed Forces Act 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-87, The Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-88, To instruct the Inspector General of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to study the impact of insured depository institution failures, and for other purposes 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-89, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 45 Bay Street, Suite 2, in Staten Island, New York, as the “Sergeant Angel Mendez Post Office” 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-90, The Pipeline Safety, Regulatory Certainty, and Job Creation Act of 2011 12/23/2011 1/3/2012 [12/27/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-91, The Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2012 1/30/2012 1/30/2012 [1/31/2012] No
P.L. 112-92, The SOAR Technical Corrections Act 1/26/2012 2/1/2012 [1/26/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-93, The Ultralight Aircraft Smuggling Prevention Act of 2012 1/30/2012 2/10/2012 [1/30/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-94, To redesignate the Noxubee National Wildlife Refuge as the Sam D. Hamilton Noxubee National Wildlife Refuge 2/6/2012 2/14/2012 [2/6/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-95, The FAA Reauthorization and Reform Act of 2011 2/8/2012 2/14/2012 [2/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-96, The Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012 2/22/2012 2/22/2012 [2/22/2012] No
P.L. 112-97, To provide the Quileute Indian Tribe Tsunami and Flood Protection, and for other purposes 2/16/2012 2/27/2012 [2/16/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-98, The Federal Restricted Buildings and Grounds Improvement Act of 2011 3/1/2012 3/8/2012 [3/1/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-99, To apply the countervailing duty provisions of the Tariff Act of 1930 to nonmarket economy countries, and for other purposes 3/8/2012 3/13/2012 [3/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-100, The St. Croix River Crossing Project Authorization Act 3/6/2012 3/14/2012 [3/6/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-101, A bill to designate the United States courthouse located at 222 West 7th Avenue, Anchorage, Alaska, as the James M. Fitzgerald United States Courthouse 3/7/2012 3/14/2012 [3/7/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-102, The Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2012 3/29/2012 3/30/2012 No No
P.L. 112-103, The HALE Scouts Act 3/22/2012 4/2/2012 [3/23/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-104, The United States Marshals Service 225th Anniversary Commemorative Coin Act 3/23/2012 4/2/2012 [3/23/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-105, The STOCK Act 3/28/2012 4/4/2012 [3/28/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-106, The Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act 3/27/2012 4/5/2012 [3/27/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-107, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 500 East Whitestone Boulevard in Cedar Park, Texas, as the “Army Specialist Matthew Troy Morris Post Office Building” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-108, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 115 4th Avenue Southwest in Ardmore, Oklahoma, as the “Specialist Micheal E. Phillips Post Office” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-109, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 10 Main Street in East Rockaway, New York, as the “John J. Cook Post Office” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-110, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 801 West Eastport Street in Iuka, Mississippi, as the “Sergeant Jason W. Vaughn Post Office” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-111, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 67 Castle Street in Geneva, New York, as the “Corporal Steven Blaine Riccione Post Office” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-112, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 122 North Holderrieth Boulevard in Tomball, Texas, as the “Tomball Veterans Post Office” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-113, The Brian A. Terry Memorial Act 5/14/2012 5/15/2012 [5/14/2012] No
P.L. 112-114, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 8 West Silver Street in Westfield, Massachusetts, as the “William T. Trant Post Office Building” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-115, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 260 California Drive in Yountville, California, as the “Private First Class Alejandro R. Ruiz Post Office Building” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-116, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 15455 Manchester Road in Ballwin, Missouri, as the “Specialist Peter J. Navarro Post Office Building” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-117, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1100 Town and Country Commons in Chesterfield, Missouri, as the “Lance Corporal Matthew P. Pathenos Post Office Building” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 [5/8/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-118, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 112 South 5th Street in Saint Charles, Missouri, as the “Lance Corporal Drew W. Weaver Post Office Building” 5/8/2012 5/15/2012 No No
P.L. 112-119, A bill to authorize the Administrator of General Services to convey a parcel of real property in Tracy, California, to the City of Tracy 5/10/2012 5/15/2012 [5/10/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-120, To modify the Department of Defense Program Guidance relating to the award of Post-Deployment/Mobilization Respite Absence administrative absence days to members of the reserve components to exempt any member whose qualified mobilization commenced before October 1, 2011, and continued on or after that date, from the changes to the program guidance that took effect on that date 5/18/2012 5/25/2012 [5/18/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-121, The Temporary Bankruptcy Judgeships Extension Act of 2012 5/18/2012 5/25/2012 [5/18/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-122, The Export-Import Bank Reauthorization Act of 2012 5/21/2012 5/30/2012 [5/21/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-123, The National Flood Insurance Program Extension Act 5/31/2012 5/31/2012 [5/31/2012] No
P.L. 112-124, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 11 Dock Street in Pittston, Pennsylvania, as the “Trooper Joshua D. Miller Post Office Building” 5/29/2012 6/5/2012 [5/29/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-125, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 170 Evergreen Square SW in Pine City, Minnesota, as the “Master Sergeant Daniel L. Fedder Post Office” 5/29/2012 6/5/2012 [5/29/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-126, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1449 West Avenue in Bronx, New York, as the “Private Isaac T. Cortes Post Office” 5/29/2012 6/5/2012 [5/29/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-127, The Border Tunnel Prevention Act of 2012 5/29/2012 6/5/2012 [5/29/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-128, The Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Backcountry Access Act 5/29/2011 6/5/2012 [5/29/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-129, To provide for the release of the reversionary interest held by the United States in certain land conveyed by the United States in 1950 for the establishment of an airport in Cook County, Minnesota 5/31/2012 6/8/2012 [5/31/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-130, To allow otherwise eligible Israeli nationals to receive E-2 nonimmigrant visas if similarly situated United States nationals are eligible for similar nonimmigrant status in Israel 5/31/2012 6/8/2012 [5/31/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-131, The John F. Kennedy Center Reauthorization Act of 2012 5/31/2012 6/8/2012 [5/31/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-132, A bill to allow the Chief of the Forest Service to award certain contracts for large air tankers 6/12/2012 6/13/2012 [6/12/2012] No
P.L. 112-133, The Salmon Lake Land Selection Resolution Act 6/7/2012 6/15/2012 [6/7/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-134, A bill to authorize the Secretary of Commerce to convey property of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to the City of Pascagoula, Mississippi, and for other purposes 6/7/2012 6/15/2012 [6/7/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-135, To make a technical correction in Public Law 112-108 6/11/2012 6/21/2012 [6/11/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-136, To correct a technical error in Public Law 112-122 6/11/2012 6/21/2012 [6/11/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-137, A bill to modify a land grant patent issued by the Secretary of the Interior 6/20/2012 6/27/2012 [6/20/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-138, A bill to provide for the conveyance of certain parcels of land to the town of Alta, Utah 6/20/2011 6/27/2012 [6/20/2011] Yes
P.L. 112-139, The East Bench Irrigation District Water Contract Extension Act 6/20/2012 6/27/2012 [6/20/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-140, The Temporary Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2012 6/29/2012 6/29/2012 No No
P.L. 112-141, The Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2012, Part II 7/2/2012 7/6/2012 [7/2/2012] No
P.L. 112-142, The Church Plan Investment Clarification Act 6/29/2012 7/9/2012 [7/9/2012] No
P.L. 112-143, To promote the development of the Southwest waterfront in the District of Columbia, and for other purposes 6/29/2012 7/9/2012 [7/9/2012] No
P.L. 112-144, The Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act 6/28/2012 7/9/2012 [6/29/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-145, The District of Columbia Special Election Reform Act 7/16/2012 7/18/2012 [7/16/2012] No
P.L. 112-146, The Former Charleston Naval Base Land Exchange Act of 2012 7/12/2012 7/18/2012 [7/12/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-147, The Veteran Skills to Jobs Act 7/19/2012 7/23/2012 [7/19/2012] No
P.L. 112-148, The Raoul Wallenberg Centennial Celebration Act 7/19/2012 7/26/2012 [7/19/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-149, The Insular Areas Act of 2011 7/19/2012 7/26/2012 [7/19/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-150, The United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act of 2012 7/19/2012 7/27/2012 [7/19/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-151, The HEARTH Act of 2011 7/19/2012 7/30/2012 [7/19/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-152, The National Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Coin Act 7/25/2012 8/3/2012 [7/25/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-153, The Pilot’s Bill of Rights 7/26/2012 8/3/2012 [7/26/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-154, To amend title 38, United States Code, to provide for certain requirements for the placement of monuments in Arlington National Cemetery, and for other purposes 8/3/2012 8/6/2012 No No
P.L. 112-155, The Sequestration Transparency Act of 2012 7/27/2012 8/7/2012 [7/27/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-156, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1021 Pennsylvania Avenue in Hartshorne, Oklahoma, as the “Warren Lindley Post Office” 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/10/2011] No
P.L. 112-157, To amend the Ysleta del Sur Pueblo and Alabama and Coushatta Indian Tribes of Texas Restoration Act to allow the Ysleta del Sur Pueblo Tribe to determine blood quantum requirement for membership in that tribe 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 No No
P.L. 112-158, The Iran Threat Reduction Act of 2011 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-159, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 2810 East Hillsborough Avenue in Tampa, Florida, as the “Reverend Abe Brown Post Office Building” 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-160, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1421 Veterans Memorial Drive in Abbeville, Louisiana, as the “Sergeant Richard Franklin Abshire Post Office Building” 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-161, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 125 Kerr Avenue in Rome City, Indiana, as the “SPC Nicholas Scott Hartge Post Office” 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-162, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 150 South Union Street in Canton, Mississippi, as the “First Sergeant Landres Cheeks Post Office Building” 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-163, To amend the African Growth and Opportunity Act to extend the third-country fabric program and to add South Sudan to the list of countries eligible for designation under that Act, to make technical corrections to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States relating to the textile and apparel rules of origin for the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement, to approve the renewal of import restrictions contained in the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act of 2003, and for other purposes 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-164, The La Pine Land Conveyance Act 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-165, The Wallowa Forest Service Compound Conveyance Act 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-166, The Presidential Appointment Efficiency and Streamlining Act of 2011 8/2/2012 8/10/2012 [8/2/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-167, A bill to authorize the Architect of the Capitol to establish battery recharging stations for privately owned vehicles in parking areas under the jurisdiction of the Senate at no net cost to the Federal Government 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-168, The Haqqani Network Terrorist Designation Act of 2011 8/2/2012 8/10/2012 [8/2/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-169, A bill to provide for the use of National Infantry Museum and Soldier Center Commemorative Coin surcharges, and for other purposes 8/3/2012 8/10/2012 [8/3/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-170, To authorize the Architect of the Capitol to establish battery recharging stations for privately owned vehicles in parking areas under the jurisdiction of the House of Representatives at no net cost to the Federal Government 8/7/2012 8/16/2012 [8/7/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-171, To require the Transportation Security Administration to comply with the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act 8/7/2012 8/16/2012 [8/7/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-172, The Ambassador James R. Lilley and Congressman Stephen J. Solarz North Korea Human Rights Reauthorization Act of 2012 8/7/2012 8/16/2012 [8/7/2012] Yes
P.L. 112-173, A bill to prevent harm to the national security or endangering the military officers and civilian employees to whom internet publication of certain information applies, and for other purposes 8/16/2012 8/16/2012 No No

[Brackets indicate a link from Whitehouse.gov to Thomas legislative database]

‡ Link to final version of bill on impossible-to-find page.

Does the $16 Trillion Debt Matter? A Remedial Lesson in Public Finance Economics for the GOP

Everyone has a cross to bear in life, some sort of burden or obligation, often self-imposed.

For some inexplicable reason, I’ve decided that one of my responsibilities is to educate a backwards and primitive people who seem impervious to common sense, simple logic, and strong principles.

As you’ve probably guessed already, I’m talking about Republicans.

I’ve already identified them at the Stupid Party, but they seem especially ill-informed and clueless on the topic of government borrowing.

I’ve specifically warned that they are economically (and politically) misguided when they focus on deficits and debt as America’s main fiscal problem.

I even created a “Bob Dole Award” in hopes of getting this point across. Simply stated, fixating on debt opens the door for higher taxes.

And does anyone think our economy would be stronger, or our fiscal position would be better, if we replaced some debt-financed spending with some spending financed by class-warfare taxes?

Especially since the higher taxes almost certainly would trigger more spending, so government borrowing would stay the same and the only thing that would change is that we’d be saddled with even more waste.

Notwithstanding all my educational efforts, Republicans couldn’t resist jumping up and down and making loud noises earlier this week when the national debt hit the $16 trillion mark earlier this week (a google search for “$16 trillion debt” returned more than 24 million hits).

So let’s walk through (again) why this is misguided.

First, let’s clear up some numbers that cause confusion. Republicans are complaining about something called the “gross federal debt.” This number is largely meaningless (see table 7.1 of the OMB Historical Tables if you want to look at the details).

It is the combination of a somewhat meaningful number of more than $11 trillion known as “debt held by the public,” which is a measure of how much the federal government has borrowed over time from the private sector, and a totally irrelevant number  of about $4.5 trillion known as “debt held by federal government accounts.”

The latter number is simply a total of the IOUs that the government issues to itself, most notably the ones at the Social Security Trust Fund. But the “assets” in the Trust Fund at the Social Security Administration are offset by the “liabilities” at the Treasury Department. This is an empty bookkeeping gimmick, just as if you took a dollar out of your right pocket, put it in your left pocket, and left an IOU in exchange.

That being said, it is important to recognize that politicians have imposed poorly designed entitlement programs, and future spending on these programs will skyrocket far beyond current revenues. That growing gap, which is explained in this short video, is sometimes known as “unfunded liabilities.”

This number depends on a whole range of assumptions and can be measured in current dollars, constant dollars, and present value. I prefer the middle approach, which adjusts for inflation, and it’s worth noting that “unfunded liabilities” for Social Security and Medicare are more than $100 trillion.

That’s a number we should worry about, not the make-believe $4.5 trillion of IOUs that comprise part of the “gross national debt.”

Now let’s get to the most important issue. The reason we should worry about that $100 trillion number is that it is an estimate of how much the burden of spending will climb in the future. That additional spending will weaken the economy whether it is financed by borrowing or taxes.

Sort of helps to explain why entitlement reform is completely necessary if we want to keep America from a Greek-style fiscal collapse at some point in the future.

Here’s my video on the topic. In an ideal world, Republicans would not be allowed to talk about fiscal policy until they were first strapped in chairs, given a bunch of ADD medicine, and forced to watch this on automatic replay about 50 times.

Now for the all-important caveats. Yes, a nation can reach a point where debt becomes a problem. All you have to do is look at the mess in Europe to understand that point.

And I’ve shared numbers from both the Bank for International Settlements and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to indicate that almost all nations – including the U.S. – are going to face similar problems if government policy is left on autopilot.

What I want people to realize, though, is that governments only get into that kind of mess because there’s too much spending.

Government spending is the disease. The various ways of financing that spending – taxes, borrowing, and printing money – are symptoms of the underlying disease.

The Truth about the GM and Chrysler Bailouts

Vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan has been accused of lying when he claimed that Obama broke a promise by letting a Wisconsin auto factory close, when in fact the factory closed before Obama took office. Although that isn’t precisely what Ryan said, there is some validity to the accusation that his statement was deceptive.

But numerous Obama supporters are playing just as loose with the facts when they say that, if Obama hadn’t rescued GM and Chrysler, far more factories would have closed permanently. That is simply untrue. While news agencies have fact-checked some of the things being said at the Democratic convention, I haven’t seen any challenges of this claim.

Both GM and Chrysler were headed for bankruptcy. If they had gone bankrupt under chapter 11, most of their factories would have stayed open and they would have continued making and selling cars. Bankruptcy would have allowed the companies to avoid interest and dividend payments for a time, and to renegotiate union contracts. Under bankruptcy laws, stockholders would have lost the value of their stocks, but bond owners–who have first claim to company assets and profits–would have been paid off, if not in whole than at least in part.

Instead of letting the companies declare bankruptcy, Obama decided to “bail them out” by taking them over. Once the administration had control of the companies, it had them file for bankruptcy, just as they would have done without the government takeover. Stockholders still lost everything, but so did Chrysler’s bond holders. Instead of renegotiating union contracts, the administration gave the unions greater say over the companies. In other words, the administration didn’t bail out the companies; it bailed out the unions at the expense of (in Chrysler’s case) the bondholders.

In doing so, the administration created uncertainty in the bond market. Bonds were supposed to be safer investments than stocks. But who would want to invest in long-term bonds if the government could step in at any time and void the legal rights of the bond owners? The result is that bond sellers must be willing to pay more interest to attract buyers.

In short, the Obama auto bailout probably didn’t save many jobs (though it probably did keep worker pay uncompetitively high). Instead, it is more likely that the Obama administration’s action prolonged the recession by discouraging private investment in American industry.