Archives: December, 2011

U.S. Falling Behind in Global Competition for Human Capital

A powerful trend in today’s more globalized world is the growing competition among nations to attract and keep human capital – people with the skills and education necessary to make a modern, open, market economy hum.

Nobody has done a better job of describing this phenomenon than British journalist Robert Guest in his new book, Borderless Economics: Chinese Sea Turtles, Indian Fridges, and the New Fruits of Global Capitalism, just out from Palgrave Macmillan.

Guest is the business editor of the Economist magazine. He’s traveled widely in the United States and across the world. He has a keen understanding of the market forces shaping the global economy today, as well as a reporter’s eye for interesting people, places, and companies that tell the story.

The author summarized Borderless Economics in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, and the book was favorably reviewed in the same newspaper this week. The reviewer, Katherine Mangu-Ward of Reason magazine, highlighted an immediate application of the book’s thesis to U.S. immigration policy:

Mr. Guest notes that the U.S. annually awards only 85,000 H-1B visas for highly skilled workers; more than that number have been known to apply on the first day that applications can be submitted. America is strong because it has long been the nation richest in the resource that matters most: talent. Yet the U.S. government every year turns away tens of thousands of the most talented, motivated people in the world.

The Cato Institute hosted a book forum for Robert Guest in November, with comments from Edward Alden of the Council on Foreign Relations. You can view the event here.

‘Loser-pays Has Yet to Be Properly Tried in America’

If you missed it, The Economist has a useful contribution on the renewed interest among many Americans in adopting the loser-pays principle in civil litigation, which most countries around the world have long embraced in light of its fairness and practicality. I’ve been writing in favor of the idea since my first book, The Litigation Explosion (more links here) and Cato has spotlighted Marie Gryphon’s important recent work on the topic. Mississippi governor-elect Phil Bryant “has already expressed support” for the concept, according to this recent report in the Jackson Clarion-Ledger.

Despite strong interest in liability reform over the past two decades, no state has joined Alaska (which has had the principle since territorial days) in adopting an across-the-board loser-pays principle. Why is that? The opposition of some plaintiff’s lawyers and legal academics is hardly a full explanation. The fact is that loser-pays reform remains perpetually sidelined because much of organized big business quietly or not-so-quietly opposes it. In fact, some D.C.-based business lobbyists even roam the country attempting to squelch outbursts of enthusiasm for loser-pays among state legislators and others close to the grass roots.

Why are these businesses opposed? Some fear that any new set of rules will be interpreted to their disfavor, or prefer not to rock the boat for fear of unpredictable consequences; others delegate the issue to outside lawyers who may see the issue through the lens of their own professional biases; and yet other businesses recognize and (as perennial defendants) fear the tendency of loser-pays systems to vindicate many strong small plaintiff’s claims better than does our current system. With an open public debate and careful drafting of reform proposals, I think most of these fears would be assuaged: for example, most big American firms also operate in Canada, Europe, and other countries where loser-pays is accepted as a normal feature of the legal landscape. In the mean time, I wish someone would organize a group called “Business Leaders for Loser-Pays.”

Stossel Tonight: 2011 in Review

John Stossel takes a look back at 2011 tonight at 10 on Fox Business Network. Jeff Miron and I will be on, along with Nick Gillespie and Katherine Mangu-Ward of Reason, legendary MTV VJs Kurt Loder and Kennedy, and more. Many people think of politics when they think of 2011, but not John Stossel. He’s a policy guy. So expect plenty of discussion of Iraq, the Arab Spring, the economy, the Fed, the debt, the nanny state, gay marriage, and more – but nary a candidate’s name.

And if you don’t get Fox Business, well, call a friend in a different cable monopoly jurisdiction and ask if you can come over.

Treasury Exchange-Rate Report Hits, and Misses

The U.S. Treasury Department finally released its overdue semiannual “Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies” yesterday. I’ve been reading through the informative report this morning so you won’t need to. Two quick comments:

First, the report declined, once again, to brand China a “currency manipulator,” and for good reason. The term is needlessly confrontational. As the report documents, while the Chinese currency is probably still undervalued, the Chinese government has been taking concrete steps toward a more flexible exchange-rate regime. Since it began its currency reforms in July 2005, the renminbi has appreciated 40 percent on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis against the U.S. dollar. And 40 percent just happens to be the upper range of the revaluation that was demanded by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other critics of China trade back then. They should declare victory and move on to more pressing economic problems, such as cutting federal spending and promoting private-sector growth.

Second, the report repeats the common but false assumption that a shrinking trade deficit is necessarily good for economic growth, and a rising deficit bad. From p. 6 of the report, we read:

Trade was also a bright spot in the third quarter [of 2011], as exports once again grew faster than imports. The resulting decline in the net export deficit contributed 0.4 percentage point to real GDP growth.

This reflects the simplistic Keynesian assumption that rising imports are a drag on growth because they merely replace domestic production. The truth is almost exactly the opposite, as I documented in my Cato study earlier this year titled, “The Trade-Balance Creed: Debunking the Belief that Imports and Trade Deficits Are a ‘Drag on Growth’.”

The truth, in theory as well as practice, is that a rising level of imports typically reflects rising domestic demand by both consumers and industry. Imports fuel U.S. production by supplying more raw materials, intermediate supplies, and capital machinery at competitive prices. That is why the U.S. economy has typically grown much faster during periods of rising trade deficits compared to periods of shrinking deficits. True to form, the first three quarters of 2011 saw declining GDP growth even though, according to the Keynesian creed, the decline in the trade deficit was a supposed “bright spot.”

For Your Leftie Friends, Simon Johnson Podcast on the Financial Crisis

As much as I have trouble believing it, there seems to be a portion of the public that will immediately dismiss anything Cato has to say on the financial crisis.  So as much as I try to reach anyone willing to listen, there are just many unwilling to do so.  Given the importance of understanding the financial crisis, it is essential that we have some intelligent, thoughtful voices on the Left.  Perhaps the best of those is MIT’s Simon Johnson.

While I am nowhere near 100% agreement with Simon, a recent EconTalk podcast on the financial crisis illustrates that he is generally more right than wrong.  From the podcast, Simon clearly sees central banking as an ultimate source of moral hazard in the financial sector.  His discussion of the Aldrich-Brandeis views on the founding of the Federal Reserve alone make the podcast a worthwhile listen.

His core message is one of regulatory capture in the financial system, going as far as calling himself  “a follower of George Stigler.”  This is certainly a point where progressives and libertarians can agree.  It is perhaps on the cures that we disagree.

So if you are frustrated that some of your friends seem to be getting all their (mis)information on the financial crisis from the likes of Paul Krugman, then point them towards this podcast. 

While Simon has apparently covered much of this in his book, 13 Bankers, I have to admit to not having read it.  I’ve largely put it off because as a regular reader of Johnson’s blog, I find his co-author/blogger to be excessively partisan, not to mention lacking an understanding of what free-market proponents are actually advocating.

Federal Pay from USA Today

Even with a “freeze” in effect, federal pay rose faster than private-sector pay in fiscal 2011, according to the USA Today’s Dennis Cauchon. Crunching Bureau of Labor Statistic’s data, Cauchon found that average federal worker wages rose 1.3 percent in 2011, or slightly more than the 1.2 percent increase in average private wages. The federal increase—while modest—occurred despite the freeze Congress and the president put into effect because increases from “longevity, merit, and promotions” were not covered, according to Cauchon.

I’ve argued that federal pay and benefits are excessive and should be cut as one of many needed reforms to rein in federal deficits. Lawmakers should extend the wage freeze, but they should also reduce overly generous federal worker benefits. For example, lawmakers should repeal the defined-benefit pension plan received by federal workers because it comes on top of the 401(k)-style retirement plan that workers already receive.

The good news is that increases in federal pay have slowed from the torrid pace of the early George W. Bush years, as shown in this chart. But we will need more reforms to start reversing-out the large federal pay advantage that has been built up over the last two decades. 

Whatever the Role of Fannie and Freddie in the Financial Crisis, They Need to Go

Recent actions against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also produced the standard reaction by GSE apologists.  The New York Times’ Joe Nocera was quick to denounce the SEC, arguing that Fannie and Freddie were late to subprime.  While I agree that the SEC case is likely a weak one, that, however, is for the opposite reason than Joe supposes.  The reason the case is weak is that anyone with half a brain could read Fannie’s financial disclosures and determine they were doing subprime.  Contra to Joe’s false claim that  “Fannie and Freddie got into subprime mortgages, with great trepidation, only in 2005 and 2006,”  the companies were both clear before then that they were involved in subprime.  Since fact-checking doesn’t seem to be very important with Joe, you can start with my analysis.

The disagreements between Nocera and AEI’s Peter Wallison focus on the GSEs’ mandated housing goals.  This is unfortunate and, even more importantly, besides the point.  While I find the evidence that the housing goals helped to increase GSE credit risk convincing, I would be the first to say that such evidence is far from conclusive.  But so what.  Being leveraged over 200-to-1, as was the GSE guarantee business, is a recipe for disaster regardless of credit quality.  As even Democrat Phil Angelides admits in today’s WSJ, Fannie and Freddie “had a flawed business model in which profits were privatized and losses socialized.”  That’s the real problem.  If Nocera wants to argue that Fannie Mae was no worse than Bear Stearns, then I can live with that as long as we also apply the fate of Bear to Fannie. 

One has to give Nocera some credit.  By painting the narrative as Fannie vs. Wall Street, when instead they were close partners, he has helped to preserve the current GSE model.  By focusing on “the role of government” in housing, he moves the debate away from the reckless immoral behavior of Fannie and Freddie.  He can claim this is about social policy and paint himself as a caring progressive, despite the massive regressive theft that Fannie and Freddie have actually been.

While I agree that having a better picture of the role of the GSE housing goals would be helpful, such an analysis should not delay the obvious:  the hybrid GSE model is a failure.  Let’s either have them be part of the government or truly be private (and suffer the fate of private failures).   Whether Fannie and Freddie rank in one’s top 5 or top 20 causes of the crisis, they should have been ended a long time ago.