July 30, 1999

After 18 years, Chile's privatized pension system is "an astounding success"
Critics' complaints about administrative costs miss the mark, new study says

Since replacing its government-run pay-as-you-go retirement system with an investment-based private system of individual retirement accounts 18 years ago, Chile has successfully avoided the "fiscal time bomb" that still ticks in countries like the United States, according to a new study from the Cato Institute. The Chilean system "has allowed workers to retire with better and more secure pensions" and enjoy an average real rate of return of approximately 11.3 percent per year, the study notes. Chile's economy has grown at a rate of nearly 7 percent per year in the last 14 years.

In "Chile's Private Pension System at 18: Its Current State and Future Challenges," L. Jacobo Rodríguez notes that "today, more than 95 percent of Chilean workers have their own pension savings accounts," and that the system is "by any measure, an astounding success."

In recent years, seven other Latin American countries have followed Chile's lead with privatized systems along the lines of the Chilean model, including Peru (1993), Colombia (1994), Argentina (1994), Uruguay (1996), Bolivia (1997), Mexico (1997) and El Salvador (1998). In March of this year, Rodríguez observed, "Poland became the first country in Eastern Europe to implement a partial privatization reform based on the Chilean system."

Rodríguez provides a history of retirement systems in Chile, which, in 1924, was the first country in the Western Hemisphere to introduce a state-run retirement system. He also traces the development and implementation of the current private system and examines complaints from some U.S. critics who argue, among other things, that the system's administrative costs are high. Actual administrative costs amount to 1 percent of assets, a figure comparable to management costs of the U.S. mutual fund industry. The costs would be lower, Rodríguez says, except for government rules that strictly regulate the way the investment funds can operate.

The study recommends changes that would improve the performance of Chile's system, including steps to liberalize the commission structure, allow banks and other financial institutions to enter the industry and let pension fund management companies manage more than one fund.

Social Security Privatization no. 17



July 30, 1999

Who is the radical? FEC candidate challenges campaign finance orthodoxy
Law professor vilified for questioning contribution and spending limits

Self-styled advocates of "good government" have launched a series of attacks on the Republican nominee for a GOP seat on the Federal Election Commission, calling his nomination an "insult." But a new briefing paper from the Cato Institute notes that "in case after case, the courts have been on [his] side, not on the side of his critics." The paper says that the real question to be answered in the battle over the FEC nomination of Bradley A. Smith is, "Just who is the radical?"

In "Mr. Smith, Welcome to Washington," Cato vice president for legal affairs Roger Pilon notes that "efforts to vilify prospective appointees are not uncommon in Washington, of course, but they are especially absurd in this case." Bradley Smith, a law professor at Capital University in Columbus, Ohio, "has established himself, since graduating from Harvard Law School, as one of the nation's foremost experts on campaign finance," Pilon points out. Smith is a Cato Institute adjunct scholar.

When Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott selected Smith for the GOP seat on the FEC, groups including Common Cause, Democracy 21, and the Brennan Center for Justice launched a heated battle against the nomination, denouncing Smith as "not fit to serve" because of his "radical" views. President Clinton has so far refused to nominate Smith for the GOP seat, prompting Lott, in turn, to place a hold on the nomination of Richard Holbrooke to be ambassador to the United Nations.

Why the virulent opposition? "Smith's 'crime,' it seems, is to have challenged the conventional wisdom that drives today's campaign finance debate. The thrust of his writing is that much of what has passed for 'reform' has in fact made the system worse," Pilon writes. "He has shown that limits on contributions have forced candidates to spend more time fundraising than ever before. He has demonstrated how contribution and spending limits help entrench incumbents, make campaigns longer and more negative, and reduce political accountability. He has argued convincingly that the burden of regulation has fallen most sharply on political amateurs and grassroots activists who lack the time, technical know-how, and resources to comply with heavy regulation. But above all, his writings have demonstrated time and again how efforts to ratchet up regulation by closing 'loopholes' have eroded First Amendment liberties."

Pilon writes that "since its creation nearly a quarter of a century ago, the FEC has been the captive of groups such as Common Cause and the Brennan Center, from which they have made war on the First Amendment rights of American citizens, restrained only by the determination of federal judges to uphold the Constitution. Professor Smith's nomination threatens that dominance-and threatens also to expose the true radicalism of those 'good government' groups." A serious debate over campaign finance reform "is long overdue," and "if this nomination should trigger one, it will have served a valuable purpose," Pilon concludes.

Cato Briefing Paper no. 49



July 30, 1999

Privacy is a dead letter in new U.S. Postal Service regulations, report says
Rules for private mailboxes jeopardize personal information and small business

Privacy is a dead letter in new U.S. Postal Service regulations, report says Rules for private mailboxes jeopardize personal information and small business

New U.S. Postal Service rules for private mailboxes threaten privacy and small business, and violate even the USPS's own privacy standards, according to a new study released today by the Cato Institute. The new rules, the study says, "constitute an unwarranted invasion of privacy and an expansion of the Postal Service's powers."

In "The U.S. Postal Service War on Private Mailboxes and Privacy Rights," Rick Merritt, executive director of PostalWatch, notes that the new rules require users of commercial mail-receiving agencies (CMRAs) to provide personal information such as home address and photo ID that will be available to the public. Box holders could thus fall victim to "identity thieves," who use such data to obtain credit card numbers, Merritt warns. The National Coalition Against Domestic Violence asserts that the requirement may increase the danger of stalking and stated that "the impact for domestic violence victims is potentially fatal."

Market needs led to the rise of CMRAs, chosen by small-business owners "because they have more convenient business hours, will accept deliveries from private carriers . . . and offer a stable address for enterprises that might change location." CMRAs' success has been an embarrassment to the Postal Service, which now threatens to stop delivering to any private mailbox that doesn't have a new designation in the address. Under the new rules, CMRA renters would have to "contact every person or entity that has sent them mail in the past and that might send them mail in the future and advise them that the acronym "PMB" (Private Mail Box) must precede the renter's box number on a separate line in the address on all future mail." Mail without the new code would be returned to the sender, even when the address is correct.

The USPS held two comment periods on the rule, and received an avalanche of 8,097 comments opposed to those regulations, with just 10 in favor. "At a ratio of more than 800 to 1, one wonders exactly what kind of groundswell of public opinion it would take to deter the USPS from enacting whatever regulations it chooses," Merritt concludes.

Cato Briefing Paper no. 48



July 28, 1999

False bad news: Why are perception and reality so far apart?
Americans urged to rethink assumptions about environment, resources, population

"Why is there so much false bad news about the environment, resources, and population?" And why do so many people believe it? Those are among the questions the late Julian L. Simon set out to answer in his last book, Hoodwinking the Nation, a Cato Institute book just published by Transaction Publishers.

Simon, a distinguished senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a professor at the University of Maryland at the time of his death last year, was among the nation's foremost critics of "gloom-and-doom" predictions. He noted in the preface to Hoodwinking the Nation that he had been "collecting material for this book, and writing these essays, for most of two decades."

Simon examines the nature of the false bad news; the production of false bad news by researchers, politicians and organizations; the dissemination of it by the press and television; and "our propensities as human beings that lead us to consume (and be consumed by) that body of false statements."

"The current gloom and doom about an environmental crisis is all wrong on the scientific facts," Simon argues. Typical of many examples of the gap between perception and reality were the results of a poll of attendees at an Audubon Society meeting, in which respondents were asked about fast-food packaging. Their average estimate was that it accounts for 20 to 30 percent of the volume in landfills, but "the actual volume is no more than one-third of 1 percent."

Where does the false bad news come from? Journalists, Simon notes, often know little about statistics and science and thus gather data in ways that lead to inaccurate conclusions; politicians misuse statistics in the service of their own policy goals; and psychological and cultural mechanisms make people more receptive to bad than to good news.

In the foreword, Ben Wattenberg of the American Enterprise Institute writes, "Julian loved to make bets. Fifty years from now readers who peruse Earth in the Balance by Albert Gore and Hoodwinking the Nation by Julian Simon will giggle at one of them. Let's bet which."

Hoodwinking the Nation



July 27, 1999

Plumbing standards ineffective means of water conservation
The only way to avoid shortages is to rely on free-market pricing and allocation

"America should learn from the mistakes of the 1970s and free water provision and consumption from regulatory control," Cato Institute director of regulatory studies Jerry Taylor told the House Subcommittee on Energy and Power today. "Water supply, allocation and pricing decisions should be left to market actors with limited interference from government."

In 1992 plumbing appliance standards, such as those for low-flow toilets and showers, were enacted as part of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. According to Taylor, those standards "are incapable of remedying the underlying causes of water scarcity and, moreover, introduce further distortions and inefficiencies in water markets."

"The parallels between water and energy markets are striking," according to Taylor. He outlined several key lessons learned from the mandatory energy conservation measures of the 1970s:

  • When government regulations keep prices below market-clearing levels, shortages inevitably follow.
     
  • Government agents cannot direct resource production, price or allocation decisions as efficiently as can market actors.
     
  • Mandatory conservation measures are a poor substitute for accurate price signals.
     
  • Government-directed conservation investments are unlikely to improve upon those that would be made if consumers were faced with correct market signals.

"It was rising prices-not mandatory conservation-that ultimately led to increases in energy efficiency in the 1970s and 1980s. The only way to avoid shortages is to rely on free-market pricing and allocation," Taylor explained. "Water markets-like the energy markets before them-need a dose of market discipline. Consumers have proven quite responsive to changes in water prices and water markets have been shown to work quite well when released from regulatory constraints."

"More important, accurate price signals will reach the greatest sources of water waste and overconsumption-the agricultural industry-and even modest reductions in use would overwhelm the potential gains from residential conservation."

The Plumbing Standards Improvement Act: A Step in the Right Direction



July 22, 1999

Rule of law and rights of people ignored in campaign finance proposals
Far from needing further restrictions on political speech, we need fewer

"In a free society, individuals and organizations are and ought to be free to associate in any way they wish, to speak as they wish, and to spend their money as they wish, provided only that in the process they respect the rights of others to do the same," Cato Institute vice president for legal affairs Roger Pilon testified before the Committee on House Administration today. "Yet, despite a string of cases, beginning with Buckley v. Valeo and now spanning more than two decades, many in Congress persist in believing that they have the power to restrict what the First Amendment plainly protects."

"There is something fundamentally wrong with the way political campaigns in American today are financed," Pilon explained. "But many of the problems that reformers see in our present arrangements are the products of earlier reforms. Far from needing further restrictions on political speech, we need fewer."

Pilon systematically critiqued proposals being considered in Congress, including the PAC ban, PAC ban fallback, voluntary spending limits, limits on 'soft money,' and issue advocacy, finding all to be clear violations of free speech. He singled out the proposal introduced by Chris Shays (R-Conn.) and Marty Meehan (D-Mass.) as particularly egregious. "Given the Buckley framework, and the many cases since that have only strengthened that holding, it is simply shocking that so many in Congress believe that they can ignore the Court and the Constitution and sign on to a bill like Shays-Meehan that so flagrantly flies in the face of both. It is as if, in the matter of campaign finance, the rule of law, and the rights of the people, counted for nothing."

A common misconception, Pilon explained, is that money "corrupts" politics. "The congressional response has been to severely restrict the amount of money that any one individual or group could give to a candidate-limits that have not been changed since they were imposed in 1974-which means that candidates since then have had either to be independently wealthy, to be constantly raising money in small sums, or to be looking for ways around the system. Is it any wonder that no one likes this system?"

"Money buys access, not votes," Pilon corrected. "It is through access that information is imparted and interests made known, which is precisely what political speech is about. This is not a time to limit that speech. It is a time to encourage it-and, in the process, to terminate the arcane procedures under which recent elections have been conducted, which themselves corrupt."

Constitutional Issues Related to Campaign Finance Reform



July 21, 1999

U.S. forfeiture law and practice fundamentally wrong, Cato scholar declares
Pilon tells Senate panel that need for reform of civil asset forfeiture laws is urgent

"Something is terribly wrong when a body of 'law' enables officials to stop motorists and other travelers and seize their cash on the spot, returning it, if they do, often years later, only after the person proves his innocence--where such a defense is possible," Cato Institute legal scholar Roger Pilon declared at a Congressional hearing today.

Appearing before the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight, Pilon expressed outrage at the fact that "the 'law' enables officials to seize and sometimes destroy boats, cars, homes, airplanes, and whole businesses because they suspect the property has somehow been 'involved' in a crime." Even worse, "it encourages officials to maim and even kill in their efforts to seize property for forfeiture to the government. Lawyers who come upon this body of law for the first time are often taken aback by the injustice and irrationality of it all. Imagine what the ordinary citizen must think."

"Modern American asset forfeiture law, especially civil forfeiture, rests on animistic and authoritarian principles, leading to practices that are utterly foreign to our first principles as a nation," Pilon explained. "Its origins are in the Old Testament and in medieval doctrine, rooted in the idea that animals and even inanimate objects involved in wrongdoing could be sacrificed in atonement or forfeited to the Crown. Modern forfeiture law, filtered through early American admiralty and customs law, has simply carried forward, uncritically, the practice of charging things."

Pilon, Cato vice president for legal affairs and director of the Center for Constitutional Studies, noted that legitimate forfeiture plays an important role in law enforcement. But he added that "illegitimate forfeitures, while a small fraction of all forfeitures, have given the law enforcement community--to say nothing of their victims--the greatest problems; for they have given all of forfeiture a bad name, which is why the House bill should be welcomed by law enforcement." A bill recently passed by the House, the Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform Act, H.R. 1658, would address these problems, Pilon said.

"This bill should not only be welcomed by law enforcement, but by every American who wants to see our law and legal institutions grounded on our first principles as a nation. Forfeiture has a place in law enforcement, but like every tool in that effort, it must spring from principles of justice if it is to service justice," Pilon concluded.

Oversight of Federal Asset Forfeiture: Its Role in Fighting Crime



July 15, 1999

Normal Trade Relations with China too valuable to revoke, experts say
Cato briefing paper outlines the social, economic and political benefits of engagement

China's opening to the West through trade and economic reforms represents "one of the most remarkable changes in history," according to Ned Graham, president of the Christian missionary group East Gates International, and one of several experts whose views appear in a new Cato Institute briefing paper released today. Trade and the Transformation of China: The Case for Normal Trade Relations outlines how U.S. engagement with China has led to immense social, economic and political gains for both countries. Other experts whose views appear in the paper include Robert Kapp, president of the U.S.-China Business Council; the Brookings Institution's Nicholas Lardy; and Daniel Griswold, associate director of Cato's Center for Trade Policy Studies.

Graham focuses on social impact: "Expanding U.S. economic ties with China will continue to benefit religious organizations working in China by encouraging China's adherence to international law and a rules-based trading system, facilitating China's civil society in developing its rule of law and expanding personal freedoms for its population."

According to Griswold, "If Normal Trade Relations with China were to be revoked, the average tariff rate on imports from China would vault from about 4 percent to more than 40 percent. The biggest economic losses would be felt not by the Chinese leadership but millions of typical Americans who would be forced to pay more for daily consumer items. Those Americans would be the first casualties if Normal Trade Relations were severed."

Kapp argues that "thoughtful members of Congress from both parties, after weighing the economic and commercial dimensions of what is at stake here . . . {have concluded that} this is in America's national interest. It's in the interest of our businesses, our producers, our consumers and very heavily in the interest of American agriculture. And we believe that we will see the United States availing itself of these tremendous benefits as China steps into the WTO."

Lardy outlines what he believes to be the steps necessary for China's entry into the WTO: "We've got to get the agriculture agreement back on track. The Chinese have to agree to implement the agreement on an expedited basis. The U.S. side should drop those outrageous demands on the protocol issues. And the Chinese should agree to keep most of the substantive details that were out there in April on the table."

Trade Policy Briefing Paper no. 5



July 15, 1999

Public scrutiny of research data essential if it's basis for laws and regulations
Secrecy incompatible with good science, Cato scholar tells congressional panel

"The science used to support regulations and taxes must be based on publicly available data for review and analysis," Cato Institute scholar Michael Gough told Congress today. "Otherwise, government, simply by calling any collection of data, conclusion and conjecture 'science' and refusing to let others see the data, has a free hand to impose taxes and regulations."

In testimony before the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology, Gough explained that "good science requires that observations and analyses be repeatable and repeated."

Gough recounted a number of recent incidents in which federal laws and regulations were based on scientific hypotheses that turned out to be false. In one instance, Tulane University researchers reported that tiny amounts of pesticides "could interact and unleash a plethora of adverse biological events," and their findings were "instrumental in the passage of the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 and especially important in Congress's directing EPA to require new tests of commercial chemicals." But about a year after the publication of their results, "the Tulane scientists threw in the towel and published a letter in Science that acknowledged that no one, not even they, had been able to replicate their original findings."

Other scientific research used as the basis for regulation includes epidemiological studies that cannot be replicated because they're based on "data collected on a unique set of people under unique conditions over a unique time period," Gough noted. Just such a study of volunteers who participated in an American Cancer Society study was the basis of stringent air pollution regulations announced by EPA in 1996. But the researchers have refused to release their data, and in a letter to Gough in May, an agency official conceded that even "the EPA has never had access to this database."

"I question whether billions of dollars in regulatory costs should be heaped on American industry, cities and consumers on the bases of data that have not been examined by the regulatory agency," Gough told the committee.

The Importance of Data Access for Science and Governance



July 14, 1999

José Piñera honored by International Insurance Society with "Founders Award"
Architect of Chile's privatized pension system "has made a major contribution"

José Piñera, co-chairman of the Cato Institute's Project on Social Security Privatization, has received the insurance industry's top honor for his work in creating Chile's successful private pension system and for his efforts in promoting privatization of state-run retirement systems around the world. The International Insurance Society presented Piñera with its Founders Award Gold Medal for Excellence on July 12 at its annual meeting in Berlin, Germany. Ironically, Berlin is the city where German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck created the world's first state-run, tax-based social security system in the 19th century.

John P. Meyerholz, president and CEO of the International Insurance Society, said that the Chilean system created by Piñera "was a pioneering private system and is now widely studied and copied as a model around the world. That system has proved successful not only for Chileans but has provided significant economic benefits to Chile's economy." The Society noted in a statement that "because it improved the functioning of both the capital and labor markets of Chile, Social Security privatization has been one of the key reforms that has pushed the growth rate of that economy upward from a historical three percent a year to seven percent in the past 12 years. Further, the Chilean savings rate has increased to 25 percent of GNP since reform was undertaken."

Piñera has served as co-chairman of the Cato Project on Social Security Privatization since its launch in August, 1995. He was one of a handful of experts chosen to discuss the issue at a White House conference on Social Security last December and has spoken on the subject all over the world. He also serves as president of the International Center for Pension Reform, based in Santiago, Chile.

A variety of publications from the Cato Project on Social Security Privatization is available at www.socialsecurity.org and many publications are also available on Cato's Spanish-language Web site, www.elcato.org/seguridad.htm.



July 13, 1999

Internet privacy: It's not broke, so don't try to fix it
Government standards will hurt e-commerce growth, Cato scholar tells Congress

When it comes to privacy and electronic commerce, Congress should "leave the Internet alone," an expert from the Cato Institute told members of Congress today.

In testimony before the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Trade and Consumer Protection, director of information studies Solveig Singleton noted, "One key assumption behind the privacy movement is that we know that customers ought to have notice and consent concerning how information about them arising from a transaction should be used, as a matter of right. But does this really make sense? Ordinarily, we are free to make all kinds of observations about other people without their consent (this is how journalists make their living). If two people interact in a transaction, why should one party have a right to exclude the other from using the information arising from it?"

"In the context of e-commerce, especially with sensitive information, some businesses will give notice or experiment with more sophisticated privacy options to retain customer loyalty-just as it has been vital for doctors to respect their patients' confidentiality. But that is a complex matter of business ethics, and the one-size-fits-all approach won't work. Privacy is a preference that will vary from person to person, place to place, and over time. In some contexts privacy will matter to consumers and business. In others, it will not," Singleton argued.

Singleton suggested that e-commerce companies will develop their own privacy standards if that is what their customers want. "Imagine if Congress were to address the question of cable rate deregulation simply by directing the FCC to ask consumers if they would prefer lower cable prices. Clearly, that would be disastrous. Yet we see some policymakers cheerfully considering privacy regulation for electronic commerce largely on the basis of survey data, as if regulating the Internet is a casual thing, like tossing off a Christmas mailing."

Even simply requiring the posting of privacy policies could prove dangerous, Singleton concluded. "What kind of enforcement mechanism would we create? Do we really want to penalize the honest owner of a 50-year-old hardware store in Peoria because he put up his Web site without a privacy notice? Why should enforcement resources be devoted to this? Things are working fine as they are."

Federal Standards for Internet Privacy: A Skeptical Approach



July 9, 1999

A fundamental question for economists: What's your reason for being?
New book says public understanding is more important than theoretical models

Economists should use their expertise to help make a better society, not just to pursue technical precision, according to contributors to a new book published by the Cato Institute. The book's editor, economist Daniel B. Klein, poses a question rarely asked but essential to the discipline of economics: How does economists contribute to human betterment?

In the introduction to What Do Economists Contribute? Klein, associate professor of economics at Santa Clara State University, argues that "the actual decisions of political economy are made, not by experts, but by ordinary officials and voters. . . . The practitioner of political economy is typically highly ignorant of basic economic ideals." Unfortunately, according to Klein, academic economists not only neglect but even denigrate those who could benefit the most from their work.

Klein presents essays by nine noted economists, including Friedrich Hayek, Ronald Coase, Thomas Schelling, Gordon Tullock, Israel Kirzner, Frank Graham, William Hutt, Clarence Philbrook and D. McCloskey. They address a series of key issues: How can economists influence public affairs? Should economists remain principled although it may hurt their careers? How much should economists attempt to mold society?

For the most part the authors encourage economists to become more engaged in public discourse, although they disagree on specific ideas and solutions. Some suggest that the academic focus on technical refinement not only diverts economists from efforts at public edification but might even mislead economists in their own understanding of economic affairs.

Nobel laureate James M. Buchanan of George Mason University says the book "raises provocative questions that should make all economists think. What is our raison d'ętre?"

What Do Economists Contribute?



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